TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The following content is an automatic translation of Tobbe Rosén’s technical analysis, originally written in Swedish.

Bitcoin: Healthy recoil awaiting continuation formation

A week ago I wrote: ‘It is the rule rather than the exception that it looks uncertain before the price breaks above important resistance levels, like the one we are seeing now. There are many indications that we saw the start of the winter rally on 10 October. Recoils down towards the standard line at 64000 are buyable when eliminated by positive continuation formations. If 70000 is passed without being quickly punctured, we will find the next intermediate target up towards 83000, which in that case means a new ATH quotation.’

The past week started with a breakout above the ceiling of the medium-term descending trend channel and the price peaked at 73625 on Tuesday which came to note the weekly high. In the last few days, the price has rebounded down to the breakout level where the 20-day average meets up. In total, there was a rise of 2.4 per cent in the past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 63 per cent. In the weekly chart, a bullish engulfing developed which also had a long tail at the top which could be a sign that a recoil has begun.

The long trend that I am using the 200-day average to point out is largely devoid of slope but tends to reverse upwards. The trend phase indicator is noted since 19 October in the area where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies.

The MACD left on Saturday a negative cross.

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Summary: Bitcoin this week reached the ceiling of the short-term ascending channel where stochastic showed a negative divergence and on Thursday the confirmation level from 27/10 was punctured. A recoil has thus begun and I consider it already worth buying in case of continuation formations and even if the price falls towards the area of the standard line and MA-50. My main prediction is that after this contraction or consolidation we will be offered new positive trend legs. In the short and medium term, new higher tops are noted followed by new higher bottoms, which together with a golden cross and positive MA-20 and MA-50 suggests that continued rises within the blue trend channel are the most likely. Stochastig warned of a short-term top and now it has started and now we are just waiting for a strong close above the previous day's high before the next positive trend leg is likely to start.

Resistance: 71620/73625/75000
Support: 68400 / 66275 / 65100

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 15-.

Ethereum: Still caught in a prolonged consolidation

A week ago I wrote: ‘A first positive piece of the puzzle will be a crossing of the standard line at 2550. My main track is still that the low from early August will hold and that the year will end positively.’

The past week started positively and passed up through the standard line but when resistance around 2700 was reached, buying interest waned and the price turned down. On Friday, the standard line was punctured again and is now approaching the low from 25/10 at 2385. In total, Ethereum fell by 1.3 per cent this past week, which means that the year's rise has now been reduced to 7.4 per cent. In the weekly chart, an inside bar developed with a clear tail on the top.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is downward. The trend phase indicator is noted in the equilibrium oscillation zone which is an indication that there is still a high risk of sharp reversals and choppy trading.

The MACD left a negative trampoline last week.

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Summary: Ethereum passed through the standard line at the beginning of the week but the rise slowed down before the falling resistance line was passed. As long as Ethereum is trapped in the range between 2820 and 2130, there will be a high risk of sharp reversals and choppy trading. If it turns out that 2380 is punctured, a new lower low will be noted again, which is what I do not want to see. A first positive piece of the puzzle will be a crossing of the standard line at but it is only when we are offered a crossing of the ceiling in the current trading range that we can interpret what we see as a bottom formation. MACD is now testing the zero zone, which is a support with all that it implies. If the level holds, it will lead to a buy signal, but if the zone is punctured, the risk of a decline towards the August and September lows increases.  

Resistance: 2550 / 2720 / 2750 / 2820 / 2930
Support: 2385 / 2330 / 2310-2290

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 10-.

Solana: The continuation formation around the standard line can be interesting to act on

A week ago I wrote: ‘We now have signals that the expansion from the eye of the needle will be northwards. It's a tough resistance area at 190-210 and it will probably take several tests of the level before a breakout that holds is effected. I would rather not see the standard line around it broken.’

The past week started a bit weakly upwards but as the resistance level at 190 approached, buying interest waned and the weekly high was set at 183 on Tuesday. A recoil has now begun and the standard line is not very far away. In total, Solana fell by 4.0 per cent this past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 61 per cent. A negative reversal was formed in the weekly chart.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out has slowly started to point downwards. The trend phase indicator is noted since a week back in the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies.

The MACD left a negative cross on Friday.

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Summary: Solana continues to effect higher highs followed by higher lows but is currently noted in a recoil where the standard line and the breakout level from the ascending triangle are approaching. The cyclical indicator made a positive mini-divergence on Friday and a strong close above the previous day's high around the current level will probably be worth buying. What I don't want to see right now is a puncture of the standard line which probably means a test of the 150 level where the MA-200 meets up. Since the low in early September, Solana has been making higher highs and lows and that is the most likely scenario going forward, but of course not without recoils along the way. At the same time, we should respect the peaks from last spring and summer, which may need to be softened before a successful breakout is realised.

Resistance: 171.00 / 183.00 / 194.00-206.00
Support: 159.00 / 151.00 / 147.65 / 144.50 / 141.70

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 12-.

Sui: Healthy recoil worth buying in case of a continuation formation

Two weeks ago I wrote: ‘The very day after the previous analysis, the standard line was punctured and a week ago the SUI reached down to 1.60 which is so far luring back the buyers. In recent days, the price has rebounded down to the 50-day average which is currently being tested. The SUI rose by a marginal 0.7 per cent this past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 133 per cent. The weekly chart developed clear tails on both the upside and downside which I interpret as indicating some uncertainty.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to identify has gradually begun to turn upwards. The trend phase indicator is noted since the 17th of September in the zone where we are urged to act with positive trend following but now looks to be turning down from an overbought position.

The MACD left on 16 October a negative cross that is still in play but now the support area around the zero zone is being tested.

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Summary: The recent recoil is currently being tested by the 50-day moving average which if the level is punctured sets its sights on last week's low at 1.60. If the price stabilises above 1.75, there is still a good chance of an upturn from the recent highs around 2.0 and 2.35. If the price instead punctures 1.60, the focus will be southwards and support will be found at 1.50 and 1.35. I interpret a crossing of the standard line as a first positive piece of the puzzle, while a puncture of last week's low runs a high risk of leading to increasing selling pressure.

Resistance: 1.87/1.95-2.05/2.15 2.37/2.85
Support: 1.75 / 1.60 / 1.42 / 1.30

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 40-.