TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The following content is an automatic translation of Tobbe Rosén’s technical analysis, originally written in Swedish.

Bitcoin: Buying opportunity or warning signal?

A week ago I wrote: ‘In the short term, momentum is very strong which is starting to lead to overbought levels. So far I have no signals that Bitcoin has peaked and the target price for the inverted main shoulder I talked about is up towards 85,000. When Bitcoin has historically risen as much or more as it has in the past week, the next week has meant gains in 65 per cent of cases. Historically, it's been a good strategy to buy around the 10th and 21st of every month.’

The strong momentum kept Bitcoin going up and it would prove to be a good strategy this time as well to stock up around the 10th. The mathematical target price for the IHS formation I've been talking about for a few months at 85000 was easily passed and on Wednesday we were treated to a new ATH quote at 93500. In total, Bitcoin rose by 18 per cent in the past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 114 per cent. In the weekly chart, an XL candle developed and the rise was the strongest since early March.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is upward. The trend phase indicator is noted since 19 October in the area where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies but is now up at the highest level since the spring.

The MACD left on 5 November a buy signal that is still in play.

‍

Summary: Bitcoin rose this past week to new record levels but for the first time since the breakout on 6 November it looks like it may need a break. So far, small candles or negatives like last Thursday have been enough to get buyers to step on the gas pedal again. In the best of worlds, a healthy recoil from current levels is initiated, though not with overly large fat, red candles. Positive continuation formations down towards the standard line at 79360 I see as buyable and should the recoil become deeper I interpret the counter pole at 73900 as a floor. Right now I think Bitcoin is aiming for the level around $100,000, but whether we will get there quickly or if it will take time is hard to say. The target price from the previously rounded bottom opens up the possibility of a target of 98000 but then also meets 100000 which is a psychologically interesting level. The %b indicator (price relative to the bollinger bands) indicates that a recoil is probably underway.

Resistance: 92095 / 94000 / 100000
Support: 90000 / 85000 / 80000-79370

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 69-.

Ethereum: Will buyers come back before the MA-200 collapses?

A week ago I wrote: ‘In the short term, Ethereum is overbought but a retest of the breakout level at MA-200 I see as worth buying.’

This past week started with a bearish dark cloud cover that triggered a recoil down towards the area around MA-200. In recent days, the short-term sentiment level EMA-8 has been challenged. In total, Ethereum rose by a marginal 0.7 per cent this past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 38 per cent. In the weekly chart, a bearish doji star developed.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is now lacking in slope. The trend phase indicator is noted since a few weeks back in the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies.

MACD left a buy signal on 7 November, but now we see signs of waning positive momentum.

‍

Summary: On Tuesday, Ethereum reached 3450, its highest level since 24 July, which led to the execution of a sell signal in the %b indicator, after the price had risen 45% since the low in early November. At the moment there is a recoil in Ethereum that I consider buyable when it is eliminated by a positive continuation formation (closing above the previous day's high in the upper third), but it is really now that we will get an answer to how much underlying strength there is when critical supports are tested. If the standard line around 2900 gives way, the focus will be on the next significant support at 2360, which was the starting point for the recent rally. If the last week's low around 3000 is respected and 3450 is passed, the target is set for the 4000 level.  

Resistance: 3220 / 3250 / 3285 / 3290-3310 / 3400 / 3560
Support: 3010-2990 / 2960-2955 / 2845 / 2765

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 28+.

Solana: Time for a break/recoil

A week ago I wrote: ‘The rapid and powerful rise has caused the momentum indicators to become tight on the upside and the risk of a recoil is high. A recoil will be buyable on a positive continuation formation down to at least the standard line that meets up around 180.’

The past week started positively but then until the weekend has caught the price in a minor recoil or rather a trading range that looks to be a build-up for the next trend movement.  Solana rose by 19 per cent this past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 123 per cent. In the weekly chart a continuation formation was executed.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is slightly rising. The trend phase indicator is noted since two weeks in the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies. A warning signal is that the indicator is up at the highest level since early April.

MACD left a buy signal on 7 November.

‍

Summary: Since the low on 4 November, Solana has risen by 50 per cent and this has pushed most momentum indicators to extremely high levels. It is now only 7 per cent away from the last ATH level in early November 2021. The overbought situation means that the risk of a recoil is high. Going against the strongly rising trend is not the right way to trade Solana now but instead wait for a positive continuation formation, which is buyable at least down to the standard line just below the 200 level.

Resistance: 245.00/260.00/290.00-310.00
Support: 225.00 / 210.00-190.00 / 183.00 / 160.00

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 75+.

XRP: Approaching critical resistance levels

Ahead of 30 September I wrote: ‘The undertone has strengthened after the breakout from the ascending triangle and as long as the MA-200 is respected, conditions are favourable for further upside. A first negative piece of the puzzle would be a puncture of the standard line at 0.56 setting the target towards MA-200 to begin with.’

This past week started with a positive continuation formation that on Tuesday took price up above the last 5 months of consolidation. As I have said many times, breakouts from protracted consolidations often lead to powerful moves. Despite the weekend's recoil, the rise over the past week is 83 per cent, bringing this year's rise to 75 per cent. The last time we were treated to such a strong weekly rise was in early April 2021, and that time CRP continued to rise for two more weeks before a recoil of as much as 70 per cent began.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is again rising. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend-following strategies but is up at the highest level in mid-June 2023.

The MACD left a positive cross on 6 November and has been quoted in the positive zone for a week.

‍

Summary: He who waits for something... XRP has been consolidating for a long time but this past week it happened. XRP rose by a whopping 83 per cent in the past week, causing all momentum indicators to hit the roof. The sharp rise also means that volatility has become extremely high. Historically, I find 33 occasions with equally high volatility and in 21 of these, XRP has been lower a week later. From 1.25 up to 1.90, we saw during the spring and summer of 2021 that the sellers took over and pushed the price down considerably. It is not a good edge to chase new positions for upside until a recoil is in place and eliminated by a positive continuation formation. Therefore, it may be a good idea to sit on your hands and wait for a continuation formation around the standard line at 0.90-0.85. If the recoil becomes deeper than that, there is a high risk of a decline towards the MA-200, but I will come back to that in that case.

Resistance: 1.16 / 1.27 / 1.50 / 1.92
Support: 1.05-0.95 / 0.88 / 0.75 / 0.63

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 79-.