TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The following content is an automatic translation of Tobbe Rosén’s technical analysis, originally written in Swedish.

Bitcoin: Releasing if 70,000 is passed

A week ago I wrote: ‘Now the ceiling of the falling trend channel is being challenged and the question is whether one or more retracements are needed before the next positive trend leg takes over. Recoils down towards the standard line at 64000 are worth buying when eliminated by positive continuation formations.’

This past week started with a bearish engulfing candle around the ceiling of the descending medium-term trend channel. In total, Bitcoin fell by 1.7 per cent this past week, bringing the year's gain to 59 per cent. Although the week developed negatively, the weekly candle was noted as a positive reversal.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is largely devoid of slope.  The trend phase indicator is noted since the 19th of October in the area where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies.

The MACD left on Saturday a negative cross.

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Summary: Bitcoin has tested the ceiling of the medium-term trend channel in recent weeks but has so far not been able to break above the level. It is the rule rather than the exception that it looks uncertain before the price breaks above important resistance levels, like the one we are seeing now. This type of break formations have historically lasted about 6 months. There are many indications that we saw the start of the winter rally on 10 October? However, if it turns out that the low around 60000 gives way, the risk increases significantly that one or more challenging reversals may be needed first. Recoils down towards the standard line at 64000 are worth buying when eliminated by positive continuation formations. If 70000 is passed without being quickly punctured, we will find the next interim target up towards 83000, which in that case means a new ATH quotation. Although there may be a need for one or two rebounds around this level, my main prediction is that the expansion will be northwards.

Resistance: 68250 / 69525 / 70000 / 71975 / 72700-73750
Support: 65835 / 65240 / 63980 / 63200 / 60000

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 47-.

Ethereum: Challenging key resistances

A week ago I wrote: ‘I now want to see the buyers come back and soak up selling pressure from ever higher levels. My main track remains that the low from early August will hold and that the year will end positively.’

Last week started with a dark cloud cover-like candle that was the beginning of a recoil that reached the support area from early October on Friday. In total, Ethereum fell by 6.7 per cent this past week, which means that the year's rise has now been reduced to 8.3 per cent.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is falling. The trend phase indicator has now moved up into the equilibrium oscillation zone, which is the first time in a year.

The MACD left a negative cross on Thursday and is now challenging the support that the zero zone represents.

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Summary: Ethereum is caught since the beginning of August in a trading range between 2830 and 2150. Within this range, increasingly lower swings have led to a triangle-like formation that has a slightly positive undertone. At the beginning of the week, the index had reached the August high but this attempt to break up failed and instead Ethereum is working to find some kind of foothold around the MA-50 and the zero zone of MACD. If it turns out that 2300 is punctured, a new lower low will be noted again, which is what I do not want to see. If the price instead breaks above 2800, a 123 reversal could be in the works but there are then several tough resistances at the 3000 level where the MA-200 also meets up. A first positive piece of the puzzle will be a crossing of the standard line at 2550. My main track is still that the low from early August will hold and that the year will end positively.

Resistance: 2565 / 2690-2710 / 2730 / 2820 / 2930
Support: 2410-2380 / 2330 / 2310-2290

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 29+.

Solana: Is the outbreak level holding, signalling further rise?

A week ago I wrote: ‘If the price breaks up from the ascending triangle, we will find the mathematical target price for this breakout up towards 180-220.’

As I wrote a week ago, it would be positive if the price broke up above the upper boundary of the ascending triangle and then the next interim target would be found at the 180 level. In total, Solana rose by 8.9 per cent in the past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 71 per cent. In the weekly chart, it was the third week in a row to close on the plus side and in the upper part of the weekly candle.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out has slowly started to point downwards. The trend phase indicator is noted since a week back in the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies.

The MACD left a buy signal on 14 October that is still in play.

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Summary: Solana followed the textbook and broke up through the ascending triangle, reaching 179 on Thursday. Although several of the short-term momentum indicators are tight on the upside, there is more evidence that recoils and retests of support levels will be buyable on positive continuation formations. As I pointed out a week ago, the Solana has been quoted in an extreme low, a so-called eye of the needle, and now we are seeing signs that the expansion from this will take place northwards. It's a tough resistance area at 190-210 and it will probably take several tests of the level before an outbreak that holds is realised. I don't want to see the standard line around 156 punctured without being quickly retraced but until then, most things favour further northward expansion.

Resistance: 179.00/190.00-210.00/230.00
Support: 160.00 / 150.70 / 147.65 / 144.50 / 141.70

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 54-.

Near: Will the floor of the ascending channel hold?

Near fell by 13 per cent last week, which means that this year's rise has now been reduced to 15 per cent. In the weekly chart a bearish separating line was formed.

The long trend that I am using the 200-day average to point out is downward. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are told to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

The MACD left a buy signal on 14 October which is still in play.

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Summary: After the previous analysis, NEAR continued down towards the standard line which was punctured. At the end of last week MA-50 also gave up. Now the support level around 4.75 is being tested where the floor of the rising short-term channel meets up. I interpret this level as a minor watershed, which means that the risk of increasing selling pressure is high if the level gives way. However, those who have no problems with risk can take a position with an extremely small surveillance position with a fairly tight stop just below the 4-level. The MACD is noted in the zero zone where we see that the pressure of the negative momentum seems to be waning. A positive cross at the MACD around this level I interpret as a buy signal. Despite the predominantly negative sentiment, there are indications that NEAR may see a short-term recovery. A first positive piece of the puzzle will be a crossing of the standard line at 4.66, provided that the level is not immediately punctured.

Resistance: 4.67 / 5.05 / 5.32 / 5.46 / 5.85
Support: 4.00 / 3.83 / 3.42 / 3.10-3.07

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 23-.