TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The following content is an automatic translation of Tobbe Rosén’s technical analysis, originally written in Swedish.

Bitcoin: Testing the roof of the falling canal

A week ago I wrote: ‘In recent weeks I have pointed out that the 60000 level is an important watershed, which still holds true. At the end of last week, the level was tested again and so far it is respected. My main track is that this uncertainty will turn into a clearer positive picture shortly.’

This past week started with a positive MA-200 icebreak which triggered a rise up to the falling resistance line connecting the highs since mid-March. In total, Bitcoin rose by 8.3 per cent this past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 62 per cent. The weekly chart confirmed the positive reversal we saw a week ago.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point is largely devoid of slope.  The trend phase indicator is now heading up into the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies.

The MACD left a week ago a buy signal which is still in play.

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Summary: Since the last ATH close at 73750 in mid-March, the price has been quoted in a falling medium-term trend channel. This type of break formation has historically lasted about 6 months and that would suggest a low in mid-October. Did we see the starting shots go off for Bitcoin on 10 October? In any case, the ceiling of the trend channel is now being challenged and the question is whether one or more retakes are needed before the next positive trend leg takes over. Recoils down towards the standard line at 64000 are worth buying when they are eliminated by positive continuation formations. If 70000 is passed without being quickly punctured, we will find the next interim target up towards 83000, which in that case means a new ATH quotation. Although there may be a need for one or two retakes around this level, my main prediction is that the expansion will be northwards.

Resistance: 69025 / 70000 / 71975 / 72700-73750
Support: 66600 / 66550 / 63980 / 63200 / 60000

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 85-.

Ethereum: Challenging the upper bound of the triangle

A week ago I wrote: ‘As long as the August lows at 2130 are respected, however, the hope is that buyers will start to trade up the price above the recent short-term highs and that will trigger further buying pressure.’

Ethereum started the past week by breaking above the MA-20 and the standard line and ended the week by testing the 100-day moving average where the upper limit of the triangle also meets up. In total, Ethereum rose by 7.0 per cent this past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 16 per cent. The weekly candles developed into a continuation formation but the last two weekly candles are still trapped inside the red candle that started October.

The long trend that I am using the 200-day average to point out is descending. The trend phase indicator has now moved into the equilibrium oscillation zone for the first time in a year.

The MACD left a buy signal on 13 October and has now risen above zero.

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Summary: We are now seeing some signs of life in Ethereum as the price challenges the falling resistance line and 100-day moving average. If the price breaks above 2800, a 123 reversal may be in the works but the 3000 level where the MA-200 also meets may need to be softened with a couple of retakes before the level is retaken. I now want to see the buyers come back and soak up selling pressure from ever higher levels. My main track is still that the low from early August will hold and that the year will end positively.

Resistance: 2690-2710 / 2730 / 2820 / 2930
Support: 2575 / 2520 / 2330 / 2310-2290

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 73+.

Solana: Testing the upper bound of the ascending triangle

A week ago I wrote: ‘For the past month, the short-term look has taken on the appearance of an ascending triangle. Should price break up from the ascending triangle, we find the mathematical target price for this up towards 180-220.’

The past week started with a MA-200 icebreak and the price made its way up to the 160 level. Solana rose 8.6 per cent last week, bringing the year's gain to 56 per cent. In the weekly chart, a positive continuation formation developed.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out has slowly started to point downwards. The trend phase indicator has moved up into the zone where we are told to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

The MACD left a buy signal on 14 October which is still in play.

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Summary: Solana is now trading above the MA-200 in an ascending triangle. However, so far the resistance level at 160 has not been crossed despite four attempts. A key level I am watching is the past week's low at 147 which if punctured sets the target down towards the 135 level to start with. If price breaks up from the ascending triangle we will find the mathematical target price for this breakout up towards 180-220. October has historically been a good month but the few years I have statistics on, November has not been one of the better months. and so far I see good chances that this could be the case this year as well, but then I want to see the buyers come back relatively quickly. To start with, I want to see the standard line at 148 not punctured but quickly retaken but until then more in favour of an expansion northwards.

Resistance: 160.00 / 163.50 / 170.40 / 193.90
Support: 150.70 / 147.65 / 144.50 / 141.70

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 52-.

Sui: Healthy recoil worth buying in case of a continuation formation

För en vecka sedan sade jag: "En rekyl ner mot antingen MA-20 eller standard line som elimineras av en positiv fortsättningsformation kommer troligen vara köpvärd."

Den gångna veckan inleddes med en rekyl ner mot 20-dagars glidande medelvärde där ett så kallat tretick effektuerades. Totalt backade Sui med 6,0 procent den gångna veckan vilket innebär att årets uppgång nu reducerats till 172 procent. Efter 6 veckors konstant uppgång var det alltså dags för en andhämtningspaus.

Den långa trenden som jag använder 200-dagars medelvärde för att peka ut saknar i stort sett lutning. Trendfasindikatorn har däremot noterats i zonen där vi uppmanas agera med positiva trendföljande strategier sedan mitten av september.

MACD lämnade i onsdags ett negativt kors.

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Sammanfattning: Uppgången sedan augustilägsta har varit minst sagt kraftfull och i veckan som gick effektuerades två nya ATH-noteringar där den som nu gäller noteras vid 2,37. Flera av de korta momentumindikatorerna har rekylerat och i några fall punkterat bekräftelsenivåer vilket kan tolkas som kortsiktiga säljsignaler. Så länge inte rekyler punkterar standard line utan att snabbt återta nivån tolkar jag rekyler som elimineras av positiva fortsättningsformationer, som förra fredagen, som köpvärda. Om standard line punkteras med en svag stängning ställs siktet in mot 1,60-1,48 där bla MA-50 möter upp. Helst vill jag däremot se att köparna kommer tillbaka innan standard line vid 1,90 möter upp. Ett utbrott upp över 2,37 ställer in siktet mot 2,85 till att börja med.

Motstånd: 2,16 / 2,37 / 2,85
Stöd: 2,00-1,98 / 1,75 / 1,60

Cykelindikatorn noteras inför dagen kring 25-.