TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The following content is an automatic translation of Tobbe Rosén’s technical analysis, originally written in Swedish.

Bitcoin: Working on softening the MA-200

A week ago I wrote: ‘On Friday a positive continuation formation was effected and the next positive piece of the puzzle will be a positive close above the MA-200.’

This past week started with an attempt to break up above the MA-200 but the price turned down and retested the 60,000 level which again attracted the buyers back. In total, Bitcoin rose by 1.3 per cent this past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 48 per cent. In the weekly chart, a slightly positive reversal developed.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is slightly downward. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we should be prepared for clear swings up and down until key resistances are eliminated.

The MACD left on 1 October a negative cross, which is still in play but now the zero zone is being tested and so far the area is being respected which is a positive piece of the puzzle.

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Summary: There is some doubt about the strength of the trend that I thought I saw starting. Now the question is whether the recoil we have seen in recent weeks is about to develop into an ABC correction and set the low for the next positive trend leg on Thursday, or whether we will be invited to a new lower high. In recent weeks I have pointed out that the 60000 level is an important watershed, which still holds true. At the end of last week, the level was tested again and so far it is being respected. Fear Greed is now neutral around 50 which is another indication that there is uncertainty. I do not want to see last week's low at 59930 punctured but to be quickly retaken as it sets the target down towards 57475 in the first place. Ideally, I do not want to see this level give way as it risks triggering a widening distribution. With this market uncertainty and an upcoming US election in mind, it is possible that Bitcoin will continue to be volatile and that we should take what the trend phase indicator is warning about seriously. My main prediction is that this uncertainty will swing into a clearer positive picture within a few weeks.

Resistance: 62485-63515 / 63555 / 65050 / 665500
Support: 61040 / 60000 / 59830 / 57475

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 60.

Ethereum: Risk of continued choppy trading

A week ago I wrote: ‘Unless the standard line is retaken in conjunction with upswings, there is a greater risk that what we see are short-term pauses for breath than a positive trend change.’

The past week started with a failed attempt to break above the standard line and since then Ethereum has oscillated up and down in a tight range. In total, Ethereum rose by 2.3 per cent this past week, which means that the year's increase is now written at 8.3 per cent. In the weekly chart, a doji developed around the four-year average.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is falling. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are told to be prepared for more decline but is down to the lowest level since late October 2022.

The MACD left a negative cross on 2/10 and now the zero zone is being tested.

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Summary: Since the beginning of August, Ethereum has been trapped in a range between 2130-2820, and within this range, the level of volatility has been relatively high. Since the end of August, the contraction in which Ethereum is caught has developed into a triangle-like formation. In most cases, a contraction in a downtrend is followed by further expansion to the south and the risk of a shakeout to get rid of weak hands cannot be ignored, which means that in that case one should be prepared for a decline towards the 2000 or 1800 level. However, as long as the August low at 2130 is respected, the hope is that buyers will start to trade up the price above the recent short-term highs and that this will trigger further buying pressure. My main track remains that the low from early August will hold and that the year will end positively.

Resistance: 2490-2510 / 2725-2730 / 2810
Support: 2410-2390 / 2380 / 2330 / 2310-2290 / 2255 / 2130

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 57+.

Solana: It's time to prove it

A week ago I wrote: ‘Should price break up from the ascending triangle we will find the mathematical target price for this up towards 180-220. A key level I am watching is last week's low at 133 which if punctured sets the sights down towards the 110 level or possibly 80 if August lows do not hold either.’

Last week started with an attempt to take out MA-200 which however failed. Price is back again, testing the rising support line and the area where MA-100 and MA-50 meet up. In total, Solana rose by 3.1 per cent in the past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 45 per cent. In the weekly chart, a doji-like inside bar developed.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out has slowly started to point downwards. The trend phase indicator warns that the risk has increased for a breakout south from the current contraction.

The MACD left a negative cross on 2 October and is now challenging the zero zone. I interpret a positive cross in the zero zone as a buy signal.

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Summary: Solana is currently trading around 145 and is in a descending trend channel but in the last month the short term look has adopted a rising triangle. The recent short-term top at 160 needs to be taken out to trigger a breakout up above the ascending triangle. A key level I am watching is last week's low at 141 which if punctured sets the target down towards the 110 level or possibly 80 if the August lows do not hold either. Should the price instead break up from the ascending triangle, we will find the mathematical target price for this up towards 180-220. October has historically been a good month and so far I see good chances that this could be the case this year as well, but then I want to see the buyers come back relatively quickly. To start with, I want to see the standard line at 145 not punctured but quickly retraced.

Resistance: 147.90 / 152.25 / 153.20 / 161.80
Support: 141.70 / 140.00 / 135.35 / 127.10

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 58+.

Avalanche: Still working on the bottom building

Ahead of 16 September, I wrote: ‘This past week we are seeing signs that price is breaking away from the falling wedge and this has led to the 100-day moving average now being challenged. Now I want to see the late August peak around 28 passed so that the low at 20.50 a little more than a week ago can be interpreted as a new higher low.’

The MA-100 retraced after the last analysis and since then several new higher highs and lows have been noted. In the past week, Avalanche rose 13 per cent, which means that this year's decline has now been reduced to 25 per cent. In the weekly chart, an inside bar developed that has the appearance of a bullish piercing line that is now challenging the horizontal resistance line around 27.85.

The long trend that I preferentially use the slope of the 200-day moving average to point out is descending. The trend phase indicator warns that there is a high risk that the expansion will be southwards.

The MACD left a negative cross on 1 October but is now approaching a buy signal around the zero zone.

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Summary: After the low on 5 August at 17.30, several new higher lows and highs have been recorded. The rise since the August low is over 60 per cent and it looks like Avalanche is building a bottom formation. On Friday, the price broke above the horizontal resistance level around 28 and has thus set its sights primarily on the latest short-term top at 30.85 from late September. If the September high is passed and not followed by a new lower low, it means that a so-called 123 reversal may be underway. The mathematical target price for a breakout above 31 is indicated at 37. A first warning signal that the negative trend is still strong will be given if 23.90 gives way without being quickly retraced.

Resistance: 29.00 / 30.85 / 32.95
Support: 27.85 / 26.90 / 25.00 / 23.90

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 64+.