TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The following content is an automatic translation of Tobbe Rosén’s technical analysis, originally written in Swedish.

Bitcoin: Healthy recoil so far

A week ago I wrote: ‘For the next recoil I would prefer the 200-day moving average to be respected, but if the level is punctured it will be good if buyers come back before the standard line and 60,000 fail.’

The past week started with a negative candlestick formation that punctured the 200-day moving average on the same day. The decline continued, but when the 60000 level was reached on Thursday, we saw signs that buyers were waiting. Bitcoin fell by a total of 5.8 per cent in the past week, which means that the year's rise has now been reduced to 47 per cent. In the weekly chart, a bearish engulfing-like candle developed.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is slowly starting to lean downwards. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we should be prepared for clear swings up and down until key resistance is eliminated.

The MACD left a negative cross on 1 October, which is still in play, strengthening the odds of a period of choppy movements.

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Summary: A week ago I wrote that an upcoming recoil would ideally not puncture the 60000 level. At the end of this past week the level was tested and so far it is being respected. Fear Greed has fallen back to 42 which is a sign that the investor community is defensive. I do not want to see last week's low at 59830 give way as it sets the target down towards 57475 in the first place. Ideally, I do not want to see this level give way as it risks triggering an increasing distribution. The beginning of October has historically been choppy but after the first week there has been a strong period in most cases. Friday saw a positive continuation formation and the next positive piece of the puzzle will be a close above MA-200. With this market uncertainty and an upcoming US election in mind, it is possible that Bitcoin will continue to be volatile and that we should take what the trend phase indicator is warning about seriously.

Resistance: 62485-63515 / 63555 / 65050 / 665500
Support: 61040 / 60000 / 59830 / 57475

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 24-.

Ethereum: Risk of continued choppy trading

A week ago I wrote: ‘What I don't want to see is a 2150 puncture as it risks adding to the selling pressure with subsequent new lower highs and lows. Although sentiment has strengthened, there is still a high risk of sharp reversals and choppy trading. Several short-term momentum indicators are diverging negatively, indicating that there is some risk of an imminent recoil or contraction.’

The past week started with a puncture of the short-term sentiment level marked by the EMA-8. The decline continued to 2310 reached on Thursday, where a doji developed. In total, Ethereum fell by 9.7 per cent in the past week, which means that the year's rise has now been reduced to 5.9 per cent. In the weekly chart, a bearish engulfing-like candle developed.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is falling. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are told to be prepared for more decline but is down to the lowest level since late October 2022.

The MACD left a negative cross on 2/10 and now the zero zone is being tested.

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Summary: Since the beginning of August, Ethereum has been caught in a range between 2130-2820 and within this range, volatility has been relatively high. After reaching 2700 at the end of September, the price quickly corrected downwards, which this week caused the price to puncture the standard line that I prefer to see below the price in trends that are worth following. As long as the standard line is not retaken in connection with upswings, there is a greater risk that what we see are short-term breathing pauses than positive trend shifts. I do not want to see 2100 punctured as it risks triggering a long-term selling pressure down towards primarily 2000. To begin with, I want to see Ethereum break out of the contraction and the triangle-like formation. Seasonally, October has been a positive month even though it has been quite volatile. Although sentiment has strengthened, there is still a high risk of sharp reversals and choppy trading.

Resistance: 2440 / 2490-2510 / 2725-2730 / 2810
Support: 2400 / 2380 / 2310-2290 / 2255 / 2150

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 38+.

Solana: It's time to prove it

A week ago I wrote: ‘Now I want to see the August and September highs at 164 passed which would indicate a target price up towards 200-210. Some of the short term momentum indicators are tight on the upside, noting negative divergences which warns of an upcoming contraction or a recoil. Ideally, buyers will come back and soak up an upcoming recoil before the standard line, currently noted around 141 is punctured.’

This past week started with a bearish engulfing candle that punctured the MA-200. The recoil continued down to 133 which was reached on Thursday and is so far respected. In total, Solana fell by 8.7 per cent in the past week, which means that the year's rise has been reduced to 41 per cent. In the weekly chart, the week developed into a bearish engulfing-like candle.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out has slowly started to point downwards. The trend phase indicator has been trading in the zone for the past month where we are told to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

The MACD left a negative cross on 2 October and is now challenging the zero zone.

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Summary: There was a slightly larger recoil than expected/desired as the standard line was punctured and not yet retraced. Solana is currently trading around 143 and is in a descending trend channel but over the past month the short term look has adopted an ascending triangle. A key level I am watching is the past week's low at 133 which if punctured sets the sights down towards the 110 level or possibly 80 if the August lows do not hold either. Should the price instead break up from the ascending triangle, we will find the mathematical target price for this up towards 180-220. October has historically been a good month and so far I see good chances that this could be the case this year as well, but then I want to see the buyers come back relatively quickly. To start with, I want to see the standard line at 145 taken out and not immediately punctured.

Resistance: 144.90 / 153.20 / 161.80
Support: 140.00 / 136.80 / 127.10

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 46+.

Binance: Approaching the apex of an ascending triangle

A week ago I wrote: ‘Several momentum indicators are now warning that there is a risk of a recoil but so far there is no confirmed sell signal in the price graph.’

There was no crossing of the September peak with a strong close this past week. Instead, a week ago we were treated to a confirmed short-term top formation when the daily candlestick punctured both the EMA-8, MA-20 and MA-200 on the same day. In total, the BNB fell by 5.7 per cent in the past week, which means that this year's rise has now been reduced to 82 per cent. In the weekly chart, a bearish engulfing-like candle formed.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out now has no slope and the price is noted just below the level. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are told to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

The MACD left a negative cross a week ago and has now fallen down to the area of the zero zone where we see signs that the negative momentum is about to subside.

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Summary: BNB recoiled in the week gone by down to the area around fib 50% for the September uptrend. In recent days, the price has made its way up to the 200-day average which is now being challenged. The price has been trapped for some time between 720- and 400 but within this range we see signs of a rising triangle which if taken out sets its sights on 790-810. If 790/800 is also passed, we will find the next important resistance at 875. Stochastic has turned up in recent days from a level well below 20 and that is a good edge when price is caught in a range. I would now like to see the MA-200 retaken and BNB subsequently establish itself above the 600 level. What I don't want to see is 525 being punctured but quickly retaken as that sets the sights on 475 to begin with. If it turns out that 400 also gives way, the risk is great for a decline towards 250, but I will come back to that in that case.

Resistance: 571 / 600-605 / 615 / 622 / 720
Support: 562-560 / 535 / 527 / 500  

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 63+.