TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The following content is an automatic translation of Tobbe Rosén’s technical analysis, originally written in Swedish.

Bitcoin: Trying to soften the MA-200/65000 level

A week ago I wrote: “Bitcoin has now broken through the resistance level at $60,000 and a breakout up above $65,050 means that a new higher high is noted and followed by new higher lows, the conditions are good for the next “bullrun” to be initiated.”

The past week started a little hesitantly, but two positive icebreaks of MA-200 caused Bitcoin to pull up above 65,050. In total, Bitcoin rose by 3.6 percent in the past week, which means that the gain since the beginning of the year is now written at 54 percent. In the daily chart, it was the third consecutive week of gains, which in the short term means that a recoil or contraction may be needed before the next upward phase begins.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out has no slope, which means that as resistance it is strong. The trend phase indicator has moved up into the zone where we should be prepared for clear swings up and down until important resistance is eliminated.

The volume balance is positive again since Friday 20/9 which is exactly what we want to see during uptrends.

MACD left a positive cross on September 12th and has since picked up the positive part which strengthens the sentiment.

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Summary: After softening up the MA-200 for a little more than week, price has now broken up through the level, thus effecting a double bottom and an inverted main shoulder. The mathematical target prices for these formations are which have a mathematical target price up towards 78500 and 80500. To find prices as high as now we have to go back to the end of July. For the next recoil I would like to see the 200 day moving average respected but if the level is punctured, it would be good if the buyers come back before the standard line and 60.00 fall. If it turns out that the low at 58,000 from mid-September gives way, the risk increases that the bull run that has probably now begun will fail. October has historically been the best month for Bitcoin.

Resistance: 66550 / 68630 / 70000
Support: 65210 / 62500 / 60000 / 57475

The cycle indicator is quoted for the day around 82+.

Ethereum: Are we now aiming for the MA-200?

A week ago I wrote: “This past week both the standard line, 20- and 50-day averages were crossed. The MACD is about to take out the zero zone which I will interpret as a buy signal. Now the short-term top from August 24 at 2820 needs to be crossed and not followed by a new lower low.”

The past week started with a rise to the 2700 area and the level is still in play as a resistance area. In total, Ethereum rose by 2.4 percent this past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 14 percent. In the weekly chart, it was the third consecutive week of gains. Several short-term momentum indicators are diverging negatively, indicating that there is some risk of an impending recoil or contraction.

The long trend that I am using the 200-day average to point out is falling. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are told to be prepared for more decline but is down to the lowest level since late October 2022.

The volume balance is now positive since the 25/9.

The MACD left a positive cross on September 12 and is in the process of moving up into the positive zone.

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Summary: After the new higher low from 16/9, the price is now approaching the important psychological September peak at 2800. If it turns out that the short-term top from August 24 at 2820 is passed and not followed by a new lower low, it means that the mathematical target price for the Adam and Eve formation is noted around 3500, which in that case means that the MA-200 is retaken. What I don't want to see, however, is a break of 2150 as it risks increasing selling pressure with the following new lower highs and lows. Seasonally, October has been a positive month even though it has been quite volatile. Even though sentiment has strengthened, there is still a high risk of sharp reversals and choppy trading.

Resistance: 2730 / 2810 / 3085 / 3175
Support: 2600 / 2560 / 2515 / 2395 / 2250

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 70-.

Solana: Increasingly positive appearance

A week ago I wrote: “The short-term momentum indicators are tight on the upside and it may therefore take one or two rebounds before price softens the MA-200 to retake the level.”

After starting the week with a test of the MA-50, the MA-200 was reached on Tuesday and the short recoil on Wednesday down towards the MA-100 was enough to give buyers what they needed to break through the primary trend on Thursday. In total, Solana rose by 4.9 percent in the past week, bringing the year-to-date gain to 46 percent. It was the third week in a row where Solana recorded a rise.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out has no slope. The trend phase indicator has now moved into the zone where we are told to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

The volume balance is neutral since September 26.

MACD left a positive cross on September 12 and has now risen above zero, which I interpret positively.

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Summary: Solana has this week broken up through the 200-day moving average and as long as the level is respected it is positive. Now I would like to see the August and September highs at 164 crossed which would indicate a target price up towards 200-210. Some of the short term momentum indicators are tight on the upside, noting negative divergences which warns of an upcoming contraction or a recoil. Ideally, the buyers will come back and soak up an upcoming recoil before the standard line, which is currently noted around 141 is punctured. What I don't want to see is the August low at the 110 level being punctured without being quickly retraced as it indicates a decline towards the yearly low from late January at the 80 level. Now I want to see continued new higher lows followed by higher highs.

Resistance: 161.40 / 162.40 / 171.40 / 193.90
Support: 154.30/146.50/140.90/127.10

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 72-.

Binance: Inverted head-shoulder formation

A week ago I wrote: “Even if we are invited to a recoil, I interpret it positively if buyers soak up selling pressure with positive continuation formation before the 550 level gives way.”

BNB set a weekly high just a week ago and has since fluctuated within a fairly tight range. In total, the BNB rose 5.2 percent this past week, bringing the year's gain to 92 percent. It was the third week that closed positive.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is slightly rising and the price is noted above the average. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies.

The MACD left a positive cross on September 12 and has since moved up into the positive zone.

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Summary: BNB crossed up above the neckline just a week ago and this means that the mathematical target price after the completed IHS formation is found up towards 790. If also 790/800 is passed, we will find the next important resistance at 875. Last week the 600 level was passed and it was the first time in 100 trading days that the price is noted above the level. Several momentum indicators warn that there is a risk of a recoil but so far there is no confirmed sell signal in the price graph. Ideally, I would like to see GDP stay above the 600 support, but if the level gives way, it is important that the standard line noted at 545 for the start of the week is not punctured.

Resistance: 600-605 / 615 / 622 / 720
Support: 581 / 568 / 560 / 527 / 500  

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 60+.

XRP: XL candle and breakout from ascending triangle

Ahead of September 2, I wrote: “The undertone is strengthening and as long as the MA-200 is respected and the rampart is low, the chances that the expansion will take place to the north increase.”

A few days after the last analysis of XRP, the MA-200 was punctured but at 0.50 the buyers were waiting. MA-200 was brought back and after a few weeks of consolidation, XRP broke up on Sunday with a powerful XL candle. In total, XRP rose by 10.6 percent in the past week, which means that this year's decline has now turned into an increase of 7.5 percent. In the weekly chart, it was the 4th week in a row to close in the black.  

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is largely directionless. The trend phase indicator made its way up this weekend into the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies.

The volume balance is positive since July 14.

The MACD left a positive cross on September 13 and has now also taken out the zero zone, strengthening sentiment.

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Summary: XRP this weekend took off to the upside and the price broke up above the recent consolidation. The mathematical target price for this breakout will then be about 15 percent or up towards 0.75. The undertone has strengthened after the breakout from the ascending triangle and as long as the MA-200 is respected, the conditions are good for further upside. A first negative piece of the puzzle would be a puncture of the standard line at 0.56 and then MA-200.  

Resistance: 0.68 / 0.78 / 0.87
Support: 0.63 / 0.58 / 0.50 / 0.43 / 0.38

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 78+.