TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The following content is an automatic translation of Tobbe Rosén’s technical analysis, originally written in Swedish.

Bitcoin: Trying to soften the MA-200/65000 level

A week ago I wrote: ‘The question now is whether this bounce will take out the MA-200 and the recent short-term top around 65000. After the last week's rise, the psychological 60,000 level is now approaching which is a key resistance level. My main prediction, given the initial positive appearance and the seasonal pattern where Bitcoin often bottoms at the end of September and then finishes the year strongly, is that the expansion will be northwards.’

The past week started with a tretick and ended around MA-200 with several dojis. In total, Bitcoin rose by 5.0 per cent, which means that the year's rise is now written at 49 per cent. In the weekly chart, a positive reversal was formed.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out now has no slope, which means that it is strong as resistance. A flat primary trend is an indication that things could get choppy.  The trend phase indicator has moved up into the zone where we should be prepared for clear swings up and down until important resistance is eliminated.

The volume balance is positive again since Friday 20 September, which is the first time since 6 June but that time it only lasted a few days.

MACD left a positive cross on the 12th of September and has now moved up into the positive part which strengthens the sentiment.

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Summary: After a rise of about 20% since the low in early September, Bitcoin has now reached the watershed marked by the MA-200. Bitcoin has now broken through the resistance level at $60,000 and a breakout above $65,050 means that a new higher high is noted and followed by new higher lows, the conditions are good for the next ‘bull run’ to be initiated. However, there have been some warnings that there may be some pressure on the price as several miners have moved BTC assets to other coins. Seasonally, Bitcoin is facing the strongest period of the year. The average trend from now to the end of the year has historically been +44% (since 2014). Although October has seen dips around the 10th, 18th and 30th of October, it has been by far the strongest month of the year with an average performance of 23% and 8 of the last 10 years have seen gains.

Resistance: 64000 / 65050 / 70000
Support: 62500 / 60000 / 57475

The cycle indicator is quoted for the day around 84-.

Ethereum: Took out the standard line and MA-50 this week

A week ago I wrote: ‘The confirmation level in %b from 2 September was passed last week and that is a short-term buy signal. Now the short-term top from 24 August at 2820 needs to be passed and not followed by a new lower bottom. If 2820 is passed, a double bottom with a mathematical target price up to 3500 will be effected, which in that case means that the MA-200 will be withdrawn.’

The past week started with a doji after three days of decline and the formation is related to a three tick formation. Until Sunday, every day of the past week has closed in the black. In total, Ethereum rose by 6.0 per cent in the past week, which means that the year's increase is now written at 12 per cent. In the weekly chart, a positive reversal developed, closing well above the previous week's high.

The long trend that I am using the 200-day average to point out is slightly declining. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are told to be prepared for more decline but is down to the lowest level since late October 2022.

Volume balance is negative since 25/6 but now approaching the three-month average.

MACD left a positive cross on 12 September and is now about to challenge the zero zone.

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Summary: For the first time in a long time, we see signs that Ethereum is tending to build higher lows. Last week, both the standard line, 20- and 50-day averages were crossed. The MACD is about to take out the zero zone which I will interpret as a buy signal. After the 20% rise since the low point on 6 September, the Stochastic has reached a high level and is currently recording a mini-divergence, which means that the risk of a recoil has increased. Now the short-term top from 24 August at 2820 needs to be passed and not followed by a new lower low. If 2820 is passed, a double bottom with a mathematical target price up to 3500 will be effected, which in that case means that the MA-200 will be withdrawn. What I don't want to see, however, is a break of 2150 as it risks increasing selling pressure with subsequent new lower highs and lows. Seasonally, October has been a positive month even though it has been quite volatile.

Resistance: 2625-2630 / 2810 / 3085 / 3175
Support: 2515 / 2395 / 2250 / 2150 / 2115

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 94+.

Solana: Working on softening the MA-200

A week ago I wrote: ‘Solana has attempted an uptick in the past week that has so far failed to recapture the standard line and thus the MA-50. Now I would like to see price take out the standard line at 141 for starters and that it is not followed by new lower lows.’

Last week started with a recoil but this time buyers absorbed the selling pressure before the last low from 6 September at 120.5 was reached. On Thursday, the price managed to take out both the standard line and the 50-day average in a single day, and by the end of the week reached the 200-day average that is currently being tested. In total, Solana rose by 4.8 per cent in the past week, bringing the year's gain to 41 per cent. In the weekly chart, a positive reversal developed that is currently testing off the two-year average.  

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is slightly rising. The trend phase indicator has now made its way up into the zone where we are told to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

The volume balance is negative since 4 August.

MACD left a positive cross on 12 September and is currently working its way up above the zero zone, which I will interpret as a buy signal.

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Summary: Solana has now recorded a new higher high and has in the past week passed up through both the standard line and the MA-50. The short term momentum indicators are tight on the upside and so it may take a move or two before price softens the MA-200 to retake the level. What I do not want to see is the August low at the 110 level being punctured without being quickly retraced as it indicates a decline towards the yearly low from the end of January at the 80 level. A pass up through the 200-day average followed by a new higher bottom has good potential to be the start of a new positive more lasting trend.

Resistance: 152.40 / 162.40 / 171.40 / 193.90
Support: 141.00 / 127.10 / 120.50 / 110.00

The cycle indicator is quoted for the day around 82-.

Binance: MA-200 icebreak

On 19 August I wrote: ‘After the low at 405 on 5 August, the price has made its way up to the MA-200 and is now trying to soften the level. Ideally, I do not want to see the standard line punctured as it risks increasing selling pressure.’

Since the previous analysis, the price has again punctured the standard line but the watershed was once again retaken last week. On Sunday, the price managed to break and close above the 200-day moving average via a MA-200 icebreak. In total, GDP rose by 5.0 per cent last week, bringing the year's gain to 87 per cent. In the weekly chart, GDP developed into a positive reversal closing well above the previous week's high.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point to is rising and price has now successfully broken above the level. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are told to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading but is rising and approaching the zone where we are told to act with positive trend following strategies.

The MACD left a positive cross on 14 August, which was the first since 13 July and at the beginning of the past week the indicator crossed above the zero zone which I interpret as a buy signal.

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Summary: BNB has now noted a new higher high and on Sunday took out the MA-200 after testing both the 20- and 50-day averages earlier in the week which lured back the buyers. The short-term momentum indicators are tight on the upside which means there is a risk of an imminent recoil. Even if we are invited to a recoil, I interpret it positively if the buyers soak up the selling pressure with positive continuation formation before the 550 level gives way. What I don't want to see is the recoil puncturing the recent low from the beginning of the week at 527 and what certainly shouldn't happen is a decline causing the August low to give way as it risks causing selling pressure to increase and possibly eliminating the positive look. Right now I see the low at 470 from 6 September as a bit of a watershed. Should the top at 720 be passed, we will find the mathematical target price around 875.

Resistance: 595-605 / 615 / 622
Support: 568 / 560 / 527 / 500  

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 91-.