TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The following content is an automatic translation of Tobbe Rosén’s technical analysis, originally written in Swedish.

Bitcoin: Potential inverted head-shoulder formation

A week ago I wrote: “Now it will be interesting to see if this time Bitcoin also reverses up from the area around the floor of the descending channel and if so, if it is followed by a new higher short-term top.”

Bitcoin started the past week with a positive continuation formation after testing the floor of the descending channel. The rest of the week developed positively and at the time of writing, both the standard line and the MA-50 have been retaken. In total, Bitcoin rose by 11 percent this past week, which means that the year's rise is now written to 42 percent. In the weekly chart, a bullish engulfing-like Candle developed, the most powerful since July 20.

The long trend that I am using the 200-day average to point out is slightly rising. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are told to be prepared for further decline.

The volume balance is neutral and has diverged positively towards the recent bottoms in the price graph.

The MACD left a positive cross on Wednesday September 12th which was the first since August 20th.

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Summary: A week ago, the price was quoted oversold around the floor of the descending channel and the edge for an upward bounce was again good. Now we know that Bitcoin followed the textbook and offered a clear upward bounce. The question now is whether this bounce will take out the MA-200 and the recent short-term top around 65000. After the last week's rise, the psychological 60,000 level is now approaching. In the price chart, an inverted main shoulder is about to develop and such a shoulder has good potential to be the start of the next positive trend movement. The upcoming FOMC meeting could be the trigger that gets prices moving, either north or south. My main prediction, given the initial positive appearance and the seasonal pattern where Bitcoin often bottoms at the end of September and then finishes the year strongly, is that the expansion will be to the north.

Resistance: 60000 / 60670 / 64000 / 65050
Support: 57430 / 55535 / 52530 / 50450

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 92+.

Ethereum: Challenging the standard line

A week ago I wrote: “The trend phase indicator is pointing down and price is now approaching the floor of the descending channel while there is a positive divergence against the tightly held momentum indicators. Now I want to see the recent short-term “top” at 2600 and MA-50 crossed and followed by a new higher bottom.”

The past week started with a positive continuation formation but it has not led to any clear buying pressure and the price is clearly hesitating now that the standard line is meeting up. Last week's gain of 6.1 percent means that this year's gain is now estimated at 5.7 percent. In the weekly chart, a bullish piercing line developed but at the same time an inside bar around the four-year average.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is slightly declining. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are told to be prepared for more decline but is down to the lowest level since late October 2022.

The volume balance is negative since the 25/6.

MACD left a positive cross after a period of positive divergence against the price.

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Summary: Will last week's upward bounce be a pause in the downward trend that we have seen on several occasions recently? So far, there is more to suggest a continued decline than an increase. Since the low point in early August, the MACD has noted a positive divergence against the price and this resulted in a positive cross last week. The confirmation level in %b from September 2 was passed last week and it is a short-term buy signal. Now the short-term top from August 24 at 2820 needs to be passed and not followed by a new lower bottom. If 2820 is passed, a double bottom with a mathematical target price up to 3500 is effected, which in that case means that the MA-200 is withdrawn. What I do not want to see is that the 2100 level is punctured as it risks increasing the selling pressure with new lower tops and bottoms. Seasonally, the period from now until the end of the year has been positive and the conditions have strengthened somewhat in the past week for this to be the case this year as well.  

Resistance: 2565 / 2630 / 2820
Support: 2275 / 2150-2115 / 2085 / 1915

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 80+.

Solana: About to challenge the standard line

A week ago I wrote: “Although the short-term trend is negative, there is much to suggest that Solana is oversold. There are positive divergences against several of the short-term momentum indicators in most cases are oversold. Now, for starters, I would like to see price take out the standard line at 141 and that it is not followed by new lower lows.”

The past week started with a positive continuation formation followed by a tentative rise until the standard line was approached on Friday and the price rise slowed. In total, Solana rose by 6.6 percent in the past week, which means that the year's increase is now written at 34 percent. This past week did not quite manage to close above the previous weekly candle but there were no more than a few points left.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is slightly rising. The trend phase indicator has fallen down into the zone where we are warned that the risk of decline is more likely than rise.

The volume balance is negative.

The MACD left a positive cross on Friday and is now approaching the zero zone.

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Summary: Solana has attempted an upward bounce in the last week that has so far not succeeded in retaking the standard line and thus not the MA-50 either. What I do not want to see is that the August low at the 110 level is punctured without being quickly retaken as it indicates that a decline towards the yearly low from the end of January at the 80 level is likely. Ahead of the upcoming Solana Breakpoint event on September 20 in Singapore, there are many expectations of a possible price increase. Historically, Solana has recorded gains ahead of this event, with past gains ranging from 42% to 68%. Now, for starters, I would like to see the price take out the standard line at 141 and that it is not followed by new lower lows.

Resistance: 140.00 / 141.40 / 153.60
Support: 130.00/128.15/123.70/120.50/110.00/102.00-98.00

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 85+.

Avalanche: Resumes the standard line and works on softening MA-100

A week ago I wrote: “Price is in a falling wedge and there is now a positive divergence against the MACD as well as positive mini-divergences against the cycle indicator (Stochastic 5 periods).”

The past week started positively and took out the 50-day average to reach the 100-day ditto at the end of the week where it currently looks a bit sluggish. In total, Avalanche rose by 13 percent last week, which means that the year's decline has now been reduced to 36 percent. In the weekly chart, a bullish engulfing-like Candle developed.

The long trend that I prefer to use the slope of the 200-day average to point out is falling. The trend phase indicator is noted since mid-June in the zone where we are told to be prepared for further lows but reversals up from similar lows have historically had a good edge for upside.

MACD left a positive cross on Monday and now looks to pass up through the zero zone.

Volume balance is now neutral after being negative since April 13.

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Summary: Avalanche has been in a falling trend since peaking at $65 in mid-March that has increasingly taken on the appearance of a falling wedge. This past week we are seeing signs that the price is breaking away from the falling wedge and this has led to the 100-day moving average now being challenged. Now I want to see the late August peak around 28 passed so that the low at 20.50 a little more than a week ago can be interpreted as a new higher low. This gives a first mathematical target price up towards 37, which if reached means that the price has broken above the 200-day average. A first warning signal that the negative trend is still strong will be given if last week's low gives way, which sets the target towards the August low at 17.3. If it turns out that the August low also gives way, there is a great risk of increasing selling pressure.

Resistance: 25.70 / 27.35-28.00 29.25
Support: 22.90 / 20.50 / 19.80 / 17.30 / 15.00

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 58+.

Polkadot: Now working on softening the zero zone

Ahead of August 19, I wrote: “In the short term, Polkadot is oversold and the edge is good for an upward bounce. Now I want to see the price take out the standard line to begin with and that it is not immediately followed by new lower lows.”

There was a bounce and a crossing of the standard line after the previous analysis but before the MA-50 was crossed the price turned down again. In the last week, the 40 level has been tested, which has led to the price moving up to the level where the standard line and MA-50 meet. Last week, 10.2 percent was added, which means that this year's decline has now been reduced to 45 percent. In the weekly chart a positive continuation formation was executed.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is falling. The trend phase indicator is noted since mid-June in the area where we should be prepared for further decline.

The volume balance is negative.

The MACD left on September 8 a positive cross after a period of positive divergence.

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Summary: So far Polkadot is noting lower highs and lows in the price chart and this means that the risk of further decline is greater than a positive trend change. In recent days, we have seen an indication that the price is on the way up through the wedge ceiling. If it turns out that the last short-term top at 5.1 from August 24 is passed, I interpret the low at 3.8 from September 6 as a new higher low and it will be the first time since the end of May. The closest challenge is now the 50-day average which if taken out will be another positive piece of the puzzle. What I do not want to see is that the August low at 3.6 gives way without being quickly retaken as it risks increasing the selling pressure in a worrying way. The MACD is now approaching the zero zone, while the %b shows that the price is noted around the upper bollinger band.  

Resistance: 4.90-5.10 / 5.50 / 5.90-6.10 / 6.40
Support: 4.20 / 4.00 / 3.60 / 3.10

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 90+.