TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The following content is an automatic translation of Tobbe Rosén’s technical analysis, originally written in Swedish.

Bitcoin: Now challenging the floor of the descending channel

A week ago I wrote: “Since peaking at 74000 in March, lower highs and lows have characterized the price movement. Bitcoin has been trapped in a range between 70000 and 50000 for the past month. As long as neither the upper nor the lower part of this range is taken out or punctured, the risk of sharp reversals and choppy trading is high.”

This past week started off choppy but ended with a new selling pressure that pulled the price back down to the floor of the descending trend channel. In total, Bitcoin fell by 7.7 percent this past week, which means that the year's rise has now been reduced to 29 percent. In the weekly chart, a new negative reversal developed.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is now only slightly rising.  The trend phase indicator has fallen down into the zone where we are told to be prepared for further decline. The last time the indicator fell into the negative zone was in mid-August last year.

The volume balance is negative since June 14 but is now approaching the three-month average.

The MACD left a sell signal on August 30.

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Summary: Now it will be interesting to see if Bitcoin also this time turns up from the area around the floor of the falling channel and if so, whether it is followed by a new higher short-term top. It would be desirable if the zone around the channel floor was respected and thereafter new higher highs are effected which are followed by new higher lows. Bitcoin has been trapped in a range between 70000 and 50000 for a couple of months. In recent weeks, the movement is limited by 65000 and 50000. As long as neither the upper nor the lower part of the shorter range is taken out or punctured, the risk of sharp reversals and choppy trading is high. If 52500 is punctured, we will find the next support downwards to the August low at 50000. Seasonally, Bitcoin has bottomed at the end of September and then developed strongly in the last months of the year.

Resistance: 55750 / 57850 / 60000 / 62055
Support: 52530 / 50450 / 49050 / 44865

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 18-.

Ethereum: Double-bottomed or unplugged?

A week ago I wrote: “Ideally, I would not like to see last week's low at 2390 punctured as it risks adding selling pressure towards the August low at 2115.”

The past week started with a failed attempt to regain the standard line and when 2390 was punctured, the focus was set on August lows. In total, Ethereum fell by 9.0 percent this past week, which means that the year's rise has now been completely eliminated. In the weekly chart, we were treated to a new negative reversal that closed around the four-year average.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is now slightly declining. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are told to be prepared for more decline but is down to the lowest level since late October 2022.

The volume balance is negative since the 25/6.

MACD left a new sell signal on September 5.

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Summary: The trend phase indicator is pointing down and price is now approaching the floor of the descending channel while there is a positive divergence against the tightly braced momentum indicators. The G-forces are now sorted for decline (MA20<MA50<MA100<MA-200) and all are sloping downwards. Ideally, I want to see the August low at 2115 respected so as not to push Ethereum down towards the low of late 2023. Now I want to see the recent short-term “top” at 2600 passed and followed by a new higher bottom. I find 196 similar appearances since 2016 and at 102 of these (52%) Ethereum has stood lower a week later. It is urgent that the August low at 2115 is respected and desirable that we are invited to a reversal up above 2825 as a double bottom indicates that a more positive undertone is underway, however, we are not there yet.

Resistance: 2335 / 2390-2410 / 2485 / 2500
Support: 2150 / 2115-2085 / 1915

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 28+.

Solana: Testing the accumulation zone for the 7th time this year

A week ago I wrote: “In the short term the trend is down but provided the buyers come back before the $100 level gives way there is still a good chance that we have seen a bottom around the $110 level. I will interpret a crossing above the standard line at $146 as the first positive piece of the puzzle.”

The past week started a bit choppy, but so far I interpret it as selling pressure not being as strong as a couple of weeks ago. In total, Solana fell by 4.3 percent this past week, which means that the year's rise has now been reduced to 27 percent. Although the midpoint of last week's candle was not retaken at the weekly close (marginally below), the tail on the downside indicates that buyers are searching for some footing.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is slightly rising. The trend phase indicator has fallen into the zone where we are warned that downside risk is more likely than upside.

The volume balance is negative.

MACD left a sell signal on August 30.

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Summary: Although the short-term trend is negative, there is much to suggest that Solana is oversold. There are positive divergences against several of the short-term momentum indicators in most cases are oversold. Since late February, the zone between $120 and $100 has been respected when tested and that is a positive piece of the puzzle as I interpret it as an accumulation zone. When I study similar appearances back to 2021, I find 155 pieces. At about half of these, the price has risen or fallen in the coming week. If the 110 level is punctured, a decline towards the year low from the end of January is indicated at the 80 level. Ahead of the upcoming Solana Breakpoint event on September 20 in Singapore, there are many expectations of a possible price increase. Historically, Solana has recorded gains ahead of this event, with past gains ranging from 42% to 68%. Now, for starters, I would like to see the price take out the standard line at 141 and that it is not followed by new lower lows.

Resistance: 134.00-137.50 / 141.40 / 153.60
Support: 120.50 / 110.00 / 102.00-98.00

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 40+.

Avalanche: Resuming EMA-8

A week ago I wrote: “Price is in a falling wedge and there is a positive divergence against the MACD as well as positive mini divergences against the cycle indicator. If price instead pulls back above the August peak around 26 and is not immediately followed by a new lower low, it could be a bottom formation in the form of an inverted main shoulder that is building up.”

The past week continued downwards just below the short-term sentiment level marked by the EMA-8. This past weekend, however, we see signs that buyers are trying to trade up Avalanche to take out EMA-8. In total, Avalanche rose around 1 percent in the past week, which means that the year's decline is now written to 40 percent. In the weekly chart, a positive reversal was formed with the smallest possible margin.

The long trend that I prefer to use the slope of the 200-day average to point out is falling. The trend phase indicator is noted since mid-June in the zone where we are told to be prepared for further dips but reversals up from similar lows have historically had a good edge for upside.

The MACD left a sell signal on September 1 and is now approaching a positive cross just below the zero zone.

Volume balance has been negative since April 13 but is now working on testing the three-month average.

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Summary: Avalanche has been in a falling trend since the peak at $65 in mid-March and lately an increasingly clear falling wedge. The MACD is quoted quite close to the zero zone and is approaching a positive cross which if it occurs around the zero will count as a buy signal. To start with, I would like to see price break up above the standard line and not be followed by a lower bottom. Given the recent unlocking of 9.54 million AVAX tokens (1.33% of the maximum supply) has created speculation about potential impact on price. The risk should be high for increasing volatility. I would rather not see last week's low at 20.45 punctured and if this is the case, the August low at 17.30 should be respected in order not to trigger an annoying increasing selling pressure.

Resistance: 23.90-24.10 / 24.70 / 27.35-28.00
Support: 21.90 / 21.50 / 19.80 / 17.30 / 15.00

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 58+.

Cardano: Still caught in a falling wedge

Two weeks ago I wrote: “Closest to the top, however, the 100-day average meets up at 0.40. On the 7 similar occasions I find since 2021, the price has risen in the coming week on 5 of them, but of course these are too few occasions to draw any conclusions from.”

Cardano failed to pass the 0.40 level after the previous analysis and has instead fallen down to the support at 0.30. In total, Cardano fell by 3.2 percent in the past week, which means that this year's decline is now written at 44 percent. The weekly chart showed a small tail on the downside, which is a slightly positive piece of the puzzle.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is downward since the end of June. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are told to be prepared that decline is more likely than rise.

The volume balance is negative but is now challenging the average which if taken out is a slightly positive piece of the puzzle.

The MACD left a sell signal on September 1 and it is still in play. However, the negative momentum has subsided and a positive cross is not very far away.

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Summary: Although the previous upper limit of the falling wedge was adjusted upwards in connection with the false breakout at the end of August, the “Chang” hard fork, which was supposed to improve the functionality of the network, has not led to any upturn in Cardano. The trend phase indicator is at its lowest level since early July and a reversal up from this level could well be the start of a positive trend shift, but that is not yet what we are seeing. The potential for a breakout up through the falling wedge is found up towards 0.75 so there is good potential once a successful breakout becomes a reality.

Resistance: 0.35 / 0.40 / 0.46 / 0.52
Support: 0.30 / 0.28 / 0.25

The cycle indicator is noted for the week around 57+.