TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The following content is an automatic translation of Tobbe Rosén’s technical analysis, originally written in Swedish.

Bitcoin: Continued high risk of sharp swings and choppy trading

A week ago I wrote: ‘My main track is now about to swing from a significant bottom likely to occur in late September to one occurring on 5 August, if it turns out that 70000 is crossed. What I don't want to see is 56120 being punctured as that will likely cause Bitcoin to test off August lows.’

After a couple of dojis around the 65000 level, the past week started with a puncture of the 200-day average and then the decline continued to the 57500 area. In total, Bitcoin fell by 9.1 per cent in the past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 38 per cent. Although the August candles closed in the upper half, I interpret the weekly candles as a bearish engulfing-like price bar.

The long term trend that I use the 200-day moving average to point out is rising but last week a negative MA-200 icebreak was effected.  The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are advised to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading but is now rapidly approaching the positive trend zone.

The volume balance has been negative since 14 June but is now approaching the three-month average.

MACD left a sell signal last week.

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Summary: Although the rise and the attempt to recapture the MA-20 a week ago, we can now see that the level has been punctured again. Since the peak at 74000 in March, lower highs and lows have characterised the price movement. Bitcoin has been caught in a range between 70000 and 50000 for the past month. As long as neither the upper nor the lower part of this range is taken out or punctured, the risk of sharp reversals and choppy trading is high. It would be desirable for 56120 to be respected and then 65000 to be retaken without being followed by a new lower low. Historically, when the price has been quoted below the MA-200, the volla has been as low as now or lower and the Stochastics have been quoted below 15, the price has been higher a week later in 63 per cent of cases.

Resistance: 60000 / 62055 / 63700 / 65000
Support: 57500 / 56120 / 53500 / 52500

The Cycle indicator is quoted for the day around 20-.

Ethereum: Risk of sharp swings and choppy trading

A week ago I wrote: ‘The significant highs are being seen at ever lower levels in Ethereum and therefore it is urgent that the support level from late January around 2100 that was tested two weeks ago is respected. Now I want to see the standard line at 2840 retaken and followed by a new higher low. On the positive side, we see signs that the high is contracting.’

The past week started with small hesitant candles which I interpret as a recharge. On Friday, what I was waiting for came, namely a strong close above the standard line. In total, Ethereum rose by 5.7 per cent in the past week, which means that the year's increase is now written to 21 per cent. Although last week was an inside bar, it closed at the upper end which is a positive piece of the puzzle.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is slightly rising but the price is now noted below the average. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are told to be prepared for more decline but is approaching the equilibrium swing zone.

The volume balance is negative since 25/6.

The MACD left on 16 August a positive cross but is now approaching a sell signal.

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Summary: Since peaking at 4100 in early March, Ethereum has been characterised by lower significant tops and bottoms, leading to both the short and medium-term averages pointing down below the MA-200. Ideally, I do not want to see last week's low at 2390 punctured as it risks increasing selling pressure down towards the August low at 2115. In the short and medium term, the trends point downwards, but provided that the annual low at the August low does not give way, there are still good conditions for us to have seen a bottom around the 2100 level. I will interpret a crossing up above the standard line and 2820 as a first positive piece of the puzzle, but that the low that follows will be higher than the one we saw last week.

Resistance: 2600 / 2820 / 3000 / 3090 / 3250
Support: 2400 / 2310 / 2115

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 36-.

Solana: Oversold around the support at 130

A week ago I wrote: ‘What I don't want to see is price puncturing the 136 level as it risks triggering a decline towards the August low at 110.’

Last week started with a doji followed by a MA-200 icebreak and then the price has fallen every day since. Solana fell by 18 per cent last week, which means that the year's rise has now been reduced to 29 per cent. In the monthly chart, Solana has risen and fallen every other month since March. Now it will be interesting to see if the pattern continues, and if so, September will be a month of gains.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is slightly rising. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are told to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

The volume balance is negative.

The MACD left a sell signal last week.

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Summary: After 8 straight days of decline, Solana is oversold around the support area where we've seen the buyers come back every time since early March. Ideally I don't want to see the August low at 110 punctured as that sets the sights on the 100 level. In the short term the trend is down but provided the buyers come back before the $100 level gives way there is still a good chance that we have seen a bottom around the 110 level. A first positive piece of the puzzle I will interpret a pass up above the standard line at 146 but it is only when 162 is retaken without being followed by a new lower low that I start to become slightly positive on Solana again. I can only find 3 occasions of equal low vola below the MA-200 and equal low value on the Stochastic and on each of these the price has stood higher a week later.

Resistance: 135.75 / 147.5152.30 / 162.30
Support: 130.00 / 121.00 / 110.00-90.00

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 11-.

Avalanche: Potential bottom formation

A week ago I wrote: ‘Closest to the upside, the 100-day average now meets up at 28.50. On the 7 similar occasions I can find since 2021, the price has risen on 4 of them on a weekly basis, but of course these are too few occasions to draw any conclusions from.’

The past week started downwards and took a short break at the standard line, which was also punctured at the end of the week. In total, Avalanche fell by 19 per cent last week, extending the year's decline to 43 per cent. August was the fourth consecutive month to close in the red.

The long trend that I prefer to use the slope of the 200-day average to point out is slightly falling. The trend phase indicator is noted since mid-June in the zone where we are told to be prepared for further dips but reversals up from similar lows have historically had a good edge for upside.

MACD left a sell signal this weekend but so far there is no clear divergence towards the signal line.

Volume balance has been negative since 13 April but is now working on testing the three-month average.

Summary: Avalanche has been in a falling trend since peaking at $65 in mid-March. The price is in a falling wedge and there is a positive divergence against the MACD and positive mini-divergences against the cycle indicator (Stochastic 5 periods). If I study the situations where Avalanche has been in a falling trend and noted declines like what we see now, in most cases (55%) of the cases it has led to further decline in the coming month. The odds, on the other hand, turn positive for a rise when/if the price rises above the MA-200. Ideally, I don't want to see the August low at 17 punctured but quickly retraced because then the selling pressure will probably increase further. If the price instead retakes the August top around 26 and is not immediately followed by a new lower low, it could be a bottom formation in the form of an inverted main shoulder that is building up.

Resistance: 23.75 / 24.70 / 27.35-28.00
Support: 21.50 / 19.80 / 17.30 / 15.00

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 13+.

XRP: Increasingly positive undertone

Ahead of 19 August, I wrote: ‘There is plenty of resistance on the upside but also support on the downside. Any of the support or resistance areas, marked in red and blue, that are taken out or punctured are likely to set the tone for the coming months.’

The past week started with a decline but the flat MA-200 absorbed the selling pressure. In total, XRP fell by 9.0 per cent last week, which means that the year's decline is now written at 9.3 per cent. In the monthly chart, August developed into a positive reversal, which at the same time was caught within the limits of July. In the weekly graph, there has been a bit of bi-weekly movement around the four-year average recently.

The long trend that I am using the 200-day average to point out is largely directionless. The trend phase indicator is noted since the 7th of August the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies.

The volume balance is positive since 14 July.

The MACD left a negative cross on 1 August and it is still in play although we see signs that the negative momentum is about to subside.

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Summary: XRP has tested the MA-200 on a few occasions during August and so far the level is respected. There are plenty of resistance levels on the upside but also support on the downside. Any of the support or resistance area, marked in red and blue, that is taken out or punctured is likely to set the target for the coming months. The undertone is strengthening and as long as the MA-200 is respected and the embankment is low, the chances that the expansion will take place northwards increase. A first negative piece of the puzzle would be a puncture of the MA-200 that was not quickly retraced.  

Resistance: 0.59 / 0.63-0.66 / 0.78
Support: 0.55 / 0.51 / 0.43 / 0.38

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 35+.