TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The following content is an automatic translation of Tobbe Rosén’s technical analysis, originally written in Swedish.

Bitcoin: Appears to be building a bottom formation

A week ago I wrote: ‘ On 5 August, buyers ventured back at the 49000 level and now it is urgent that buyers soak up any selling pressure before the 50000-49000 area gives way. My main prediction, as long as physical price levels do not retrace and the trend phase indicator does not move up into the zone where there is a probability of a continued rise, is that it may take a few more weeks of choppy trading and sharp reversals before the buyers take over.’

The past week started with choppy trading around the standard line but on Wednesday the level was crossed with a positive continuation formation followed by a MA-50 and MA-200 Icebreak on Friday. In total, Bitcoin rose by 7.9 per cent in the past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 52 per cent. I interpret the weekly candle as a bullish engulfing.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising, and last week a positive MA-200 icebreak was realised.  The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are advised to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading but is now rapidly approaching the positive trend zone.

The volume balance is negative since 14 June but is now approaching the three-month average.

MACD left a positive cross on 19 August and is now working to regain the zero zone, which will be a positive piece of the puzzle.

‍

Summary: It was a hard sell but this week the 200-day average was retaken, now it will be interesting to see if it will be a false breakout or a trigger for a rise towards the channel ceiling of the medium-term trend channel. Given that the last short-term top at 62755 was passed on Friday, I interpret that the target is initially set up towards the 70000 level where we find both the channel ceiling for the falling trend channel and the last reasonably significant top. On the 27 similar occasions I find since 2014, the price has risen in the coming week on 21 of them (78%). The median development has then been a good +5.2 per cent. My main track is now about to swing from a significant bottom likely to occur at the end of September to one occurring on 5 August, if it turns out that 70000 is passed. What I don't want to see is 56120 punctured as it will probably cause Bitcoin to test the August lows which ideally should not be punctured as it is likely to trigger a more challenging selling pressure than I want.

Resistance: 65000 / 70000 / 71975 / 72000  
Support: 63225 / 60340 / 56120 / 49050

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 25+.

Ethereum: Working on recovering the standard line

A week ago I wrote: ‘The significant highs are being seen at ever lower levels in Ethereum and therefore it is urgent that the support level from late January around 2100 that was tested two weeks ago is respected. Now I want to see the standard line at 2840 retaken and followed by a new higher low. On the positive side, we are seeing signs that the high volatility is contracting.’

The past week started with small hesitant candles which I interpret as a recharge. On Friday, what I was waiting for came, namely a strong close above the standard line. In total, Ethereum rose by 5.7 per cent in the past week, which means that the year's increase is now written to 21 per cent. Although last week was an inside bar, it closed at the upper end which is a positive piece of the puzzle.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is slightly rising but the price is now noted below the average. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are told to be prepared for more decline but is approaching the equilibrium swing zone.

The volume balance is negative since 25/6.

The MACD left on 16 August a positive cross.

‍

Summary: On Friday the standard line was resumed but since then it has been a little hesitant. Ideally, I do not want to see last week's low at 2535 punctured as it risks triggering selling pressure down towards the August low at 2115 and below this level there is a high risk of further increasing selling pressure. Now I want to see Ethereum continue to establish new higher lows followed by new higher highs and that the MA-50 at 3000 is crossed. Key resistance levels and selling activity by major players have created a difficult environment for ETH, but there is still the possibility for a positive reversal if some critical price levels are retaken.

Resistance: 2820 / 3000 / 3090 / 3250
Support: 2755 / 2610 / 2550 / 2510 / 2440 / 2115

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 78+.

Solana: MA-200 icebreak

A week ago I wrote: ‘The trading range that has been capturing the movements since the end of July I see a bit as a crossroads. If it turns out that 110 is punctured, the focus is on 80-75, but if instead 194 (preferably the last top at 210), most things speak in favour of a rise towards the last ATH area at 260.’

The past week started with a bullish engulfing-like candle and ended with both the standard line and MA-200 being retaken. In total, Solana rose by 14 per cent in the past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 56 per cent. In the weekly chart, an inside bar developed with a slightly positive undertone.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising since early November. The trend phase indicator is now trying to break up into the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies.

The volume balance is negative but now approaching the three-month average.

The MACD left on 22 August a positive cross.

‍

Summary: After the price in recent weeks formed a minor but still tending to round bottom, both the standard line and the MA-200 recovered at the end of the past week. The price is still trapped in a minor range between 165- and 110. If the 165 level is retaken, the target is set to the area between 190/200. What I do not want to see is that the price instead punctures the 136 level as it risks triggering a decline towards the August low at 110. Since 2021, I can only find 3 occasions when Solana has risen as much as the last week with as low a volume. On all three occasions the price has been higher a week later. If it turns out that the MA-200 is respected in a retest, there are more pieces of the puzzle that indicate that the next positive trend leg has begun than that the August lows will be tested again.

Resistance: 155.50 / 163.50 / 175.60
Support: 151.50/136.00/121.00/110.00

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 81+.

Cardano: Outbreak with good potential

A week ago I wrote: ‘Now a falling wedge has developed and price is now approaching the apex of this contraction. At the same time, the MACD is diverging positively which is a sign that the negative momentum and selling pressure is about to subside. The past week has been characterised by small candles and the question is whether this is a build-up for a breakout above the falling resistance line or a puncture of 0.28.’

This past week started with a doji and then Cardano broke up above the standard line and the upper boundary of the falling wedge. In total, Cardano rose by 15 per cent last week, which means that the year's decline has now been reduced to 34 per cent. In the weekly chart, it was the first positive candlestick formation since early July.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to identify has been slightly downward since the end of June. At the end of last week the trend phase indicator moved up into the zone where we should be prepared for sharp reversals but if the zone becomes a positive crossover it could be the start of an exciting and positive period.

The volume balance is negative since 12 April.

The MACD left a negative cross on 24 June but now we see signs that the negative momentum is waning and a new positive cross is approaching, in this case the first since 10 July.

‍

Summary: As I wrote a week ago, there were more and more pieces of the puzzle indicating that Cardano could be about to break up through the falling wedge and so it was. Now there is a good chance that we will see a test of the last short-term top at 0.46 from the 17th of July and even if it is passed we will find the next tough resistance area at MA-200. Closest to the top, however, is the 100-day moving average at 0.40. On the 7 similar occasions I find since 2021, the price has risen in the coming week on 5 of them, but of course these are too few occasions to draw any conclusions from. The potential for this week's breakout from the wedge we find up towards 0.75 so it is good potential if reality follows theory.

Resistance: 0,40 / 0,46 / 0,52
Support: 0.38/0.34/0.32/0.30/0.28

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the week around 96-.

Avalanche: Breakout up above the standard line, MA-50 and the falling wedge

A week ago I wrote: ‘In recent weeks, price has moved within a relatively tight range with small candles indicating uncertainty. On the positive side, Avalanche looks oversold and is approaching the apex of a falling wedge. Expansion from falling wedges occurs in most cases to the upside. Given the appearance of the falling wedge, there is exciting potential up towards the 100 level.’

Avalanche started the week with a doji being passed and as the price managed to reclaim the standard line and MA-50, the underlying sentiment strengthened. In total, Avalanche rose by 30 per cent in the past week, which means that this year's decline has now been reduced to 30 per cent. In the weekly chart, a clear bullish engulfing developed.

The long trend that I prefer to use the slope of the 200-day average to point out is slightly falling. The trend phase indicator is noted since mid-June in the zone where we are told to be prepared for further lows but reversals up from similar lows have historically had a good edge for upside.

The MACD left a positive cross on 19 August and is now about to test the zero zone which if taken out is a positive piece of the puzzle.

Volume balance has been negative since 13 April but is now working on testing the three-month average.

‍

Summary: A week ago I pointed out that the small candles could be an indication that the sellers were running out of fuel and if the upper boundary of the falling wedge was passed there was very good potential for upside. Now there is a good chance that we will see a test of the recent short-term top at 33 from 21 July and even if that is passed we will find the next tough resistance area at MA-200. Closest to the top, however, is the 100-day moving average at 28.50. On the 7 similar occasions I find since 2021, the price has risen on 4 of them on a weekly basis, but of course these are too few occasions to draw any conclusions from. The potential for this week's breakout from the wedge we find around 100 but it is of course not a rise that will happen without challenges. What I don't want to see is a new lower top and the 17 level giving way as there is quite thin support below this level.

Resistance: 28.50 / 3300 / 35.40
Support: 24.90 / 22.30 / 19.80 / 17.30

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 94-.

Hedera HBAR: Outbreak with good potential

This is the first analysis of Hedera which is a decentralised, public distributed ledger technology (DLT) that differs from traditional blockchains. Instead of using a traditional blockchain like Bitcoin or Ethereum, Hedera uses a technology called ‘Hashgraph’. Hashgraph technology is built to be faster, more scalable and more energy efficient than typical blockchains. If you listen to Cryptonight on Monday 26/8 at 12:00, we will talk more about Hedera.

‍

The past week began as the week before it ended, namely with a couple of extremely small pending candles. In total, the Hedera's HBAR rose by 15 per cent last week, which means that the year's decline has been reduced to 31 per cent. In the weekly chart, the weekly candles closed above the last two weeks' highs.

The long trend that I am using the 200-day average to point out is largely devoid of slope.  The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are told to be prepared for further decline but has picked up momentum in the past week.

The volume balance is negative.

The MACD left a positive cross on 17 August.

‍

Summary: Since its peak on 24 April at 0.18, the Hedera has recorded increasingly lower highs and lows. However, in recent months the rate of decline has slowed resulting in a falling wedge. As we know, in most cases the price expands northwards from falling wedges, though we never know exactly when. In Hedera's case, the price approached the tip of the wedge and last Friday the breakout probably came after a month of positive divergence against MACD. Now the price has taken out the standard line but is now wrestling with the 50-day average while the short-term momentum indicators have become severely stretched on the upside. On the 12 similar occasions where the rise has been as large or larger in the past week and the fullness as low, the price has risen or fallen the following week on as many occasions. If, on the other hand, the price had been quoted above the MA-200, the chance of a longer-term rise would have been very good after a weekly rise such as we have just seen. The mathematical target price for a breakout like the one we saw from the wedge on Friday is around 0.11, which in that case means that the MA-200 is crossed and that the edge for a new positive trend leg increases. If it turns out instead that the next local top will be lower than the July high at 0.079, the risk of increasing more challenging selling pressure than we have seen in recent months increases.

Resistance: 0.0689 / 0.0792 / 0.091
Support: 0.0560 / 0.0507 / 0.0456

The cycle indicator is noted for the week around 88+.