TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The following content is an automatic translation of Tobbe Rosén’s technical analysis, originally written in Swedish.

Bitcoin: Continued risk of sharp turns and choppy trading

A week ago I wrote: ‘To start with, I would like to see the standard line respected and price break up above the MA-200. There is still a high risk of sharp reversals and choppy trading and until these we are invited to new higher lows, more in favour of downside than upside in the medium term.’

The price tried to break above the MA-50 and MA-200 at the start of last week but failed. There have also been small movements in Bitcoin over the past week, indicating that an expansion is underway. Bitcoin fell by 2.3 per cent last week, which means that the year's rise has now been reduced to 41 per cent. In the weekly chart, a bearish inside bar developed.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising but the price has not yet managed to regain the level despite a couple of attempts. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are advised to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

The volume balance is negative since 14 June.

The MACD left a negative cross on 1 August which is still in play. However, the negative momentum has slowed down in the last week and a positive cross is not far away, which would be the first since 13 July.

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Summary: Bitcoin is still within the confines of a descending medium-term trend channel. On 5 August, buyers ventured back at the 49000 level and now it is urgent that buyers soak up any selling pressure before the 50000-49000 area gives way. Seasonally, Bitcoin tends to bottom out sometime in late September and then go very strong in the last few months of the year. As long as Bitcoin is recording increasingly lower highs and lows, there is a greater risk of downside than upside. My main prediction, as long as neither physical price levels retrace nor the trend phase indicator moves up into the zone where there is a probability of a continued rise, is that it may take a few more weeks of choppy trading and sharp reversals before the buyers take over.

Resistance: 61830 / 62755 / 63965 / 70000  
Support: 59885 / 58415 / 56500 / 49050

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 43+.

Ethereum: Buyers lack self-confidence

A week ago I wrote: ‘Price is now working its way back into the falling medium-term channel where the floor is currently being tested. However, if the next top turns out to be lower than the standard line at 2840 and that leads to a new lower low, the risk of last week's low at 2115 giving way increases and that in turn triggers a deeper retest.’

This past week started with an attempt to take out or test of the standard line but again buyers failed to retake the level. Overall, the trend was unchanged last week and this year's rise is estimated at 15 per cent. In the weekly chart a doji developed which was also an inside bar.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is slightly rising but the price is now noted below the average. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are told to be prepared for more decline.

The volume balance is negative since the 25/6.

MACD left on 16 August a positive cross.

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Summary: The significant highs are noted at increasingly lower levels in Ethereum and therefore it is urgent that the support level from the end of January around 2100 that was tested two weeks ago is respected. If the level is punctured without being quickly retaken, there is a high risk of a decline towards the October low last year around 1500. Now I want to see the standard line at 2840 retaken and followed by a new lower low. On the positive side, we see signs that the high wave is contracting but as long as the volume balance and trend phase indicator do not turn up and become positive, the risk is imminent that further southward expansion is on the cards. Ethereum is thus in a challenging look but continued negative sentiment driven by technical indicators, large scale transactions and reduced development activity. Key resistance levels and selling activities by major players have created a difficult environment for ETH, but there is still the possibility for a positive reversal if certain critical price levels are breached.

Resistance: 2750/2840/3000/3090/3230
Support: 2550 / 2440 / 2320 / 2115

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 30-.

Solana: Breaking down again under MA-200

A week ago, I wrote: ‘It is desirable that the $140 level holds up in the coming rally. If the level is punctured without a quick retracement, the focus will be on last Monday's low and if even that level gives way, there is a risk of more challenging selling pressure than desired.’

Last week started with the MA-200 being punctured and the next three days' attempts to retake the level failed. Now the Solana is down and testing the psychological 140 level which, if punctured, indicates that the price needs to go down and visit the low at 110. In total, the Solana fell by 9.5 per cent this past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 37 per cent. In the weekly chart, a bearish engulfing developed.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising since the beginning of November, but the price has once again fallen below the average. The trend phase indicator is now noted in the equilibrium oscillation zone and that together with the trading rank means that there is a high risk of choppy, choppy movements.

The volume balance is negative.

The MACD left a negative cross on 4 May that is still in play, but the negative momentum seems to be slowing down, at least in the short term.

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Summary: Solana is still within the constraints of a medium-term falling trend channel. Over the past month, the price has fluctuated between 194 and 110. In my opinion, the price decline is more due to the fact that the rise earlier this year was extremely large in a short period of time and that other leading coins have also lost rather than internal problems in the Solana network. Reduced trading volume and negative financing rates point to continued pessimism among the investor community. The trading range that has been capturing the movements since the end of July is, in my view, a bit of a crossroads. If it turns out that 110 is punctured, the target is 80-75, but if instead 194 (preferably the latest top at 210), most things speak in favour of a rise towards the latest ATH area at 260.

Resistance: 149.40 / 164.00 / 176.00
Support: 136.25 / 127.70 / 118.80 / 110.00

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 21+.

Binance BNB: Will the signal in MACD make the price break above MA-200?

I mitten av juni skrev jag: "Om det visar sig att MA-100 punkteras ställs siktet in mot stödområdet som hittas mellan 560 och 500."

Efter ytterligare en tid av små rörelser punkterades MA-100 i slutet av juni och priset har sedan, efter ett par misslyckade försök att återta nivån expanderat ner under även MA-200. I början av augusti nådde BNB stödnivån vid 400 som än så länge respekteras. Binance steg med 6,4 den gångna veckan vilket innebär att årets uppgång nu skrivs till 74 procent. Veckocandlen utvecklades till en extremt liten doji med den minsta rangen sedan början av juni.

Den långa trenden som jag använder 200-dagars medelvärde för att peka ut är stigande men priset noteras nu under nivån. Trendfasindikatorn noteras i zonen där vi uppmanas att vara beredda på tvära kast och slagig handel.

MACD lämnade den 14 augusti ett positivt kors, vilket var det första sedan den 13 juli.

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Summary: After the low at 405 on 5 August, the price has made its way up to the MA-200 and is now trying to soften the level. The positive cross in the MACD together with the extremely small daily candles of the last week creates good conditions for a positive MA-200 icebreak, preferably also the MA-50. Ideally, I don't want to see the standard line around 500 punctured as it risks increasing the selling pressure. However, given the trend appearance and the standard line, we should be prepared for another period of choppy moves and choppy trading.

Resistance: 535 / 554 / 595-605 / 615
Support: 500 / 468 / 405-395

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 60-.

XRP: Approaching a golden cross

In mid-June I wrote: ‘A first positive piece of the puzzle will be a clear close above the standard line, provided the level is not immediately punctured.’

It would take until 12 July before we were treated to a positive close above the standard line, but after that XRP rose by 34% in just one week, stopping at the 0.63 area. Since then, the price is caught in a range between just 0.63 and 0.43. In the last week, XRP fell by 2.1 per cent, bringing the year's decline to 7.0 per cent. In the weekly chart, a doji like candle developed which was completely caught inside the previous weekly candle.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out lacks direction. The trend phase indicator is noted since the 7th of August the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies.

The volume balance is neutral since 14 July.

The MACD left a negative cross on 1 August and it is still in play although we see signs that the negative momentum is about to subside.

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Summary: XRP is looking increasingly positive but still caught in a trading range and a slightly larger consolidation. There are plenty of resistance levels on the upside but also support on the downside. Any of the support or resistance areas, marked in red and blue, that are taken out or punctured are likely to set the tone for the coming months. The undertone is significantly more positive now than just a month ago. MA-50 is now about to break up above MA-200 in a golden cross.  

Resistance: 0.60/0.63-0.66/0.78
Support: 0.55/0.51/0.43/0.38

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 51+.

Toncoin: Loading up for new records

Ahead of 8 July I wrote: ‘What I do not want to see is a puncturing of last week's low at 6.35 as it risks triggering a challenging selling pressure down towards the May low around 4.60.’

The price failed to break above 7.72 after the previous analysis, instead 6.35 was punctured on 2 August and the price then quickly fell to 4.70 where buyers were waiting. In total, Toncoin fell by 2.6 per cent in the past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 177 per cent. In the weekly chart, a long legged doji developed which is a warning signal that there is uncertainty.  

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is upward. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are told to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading. There is some positive undertone and good potential for a breakout up above +2 which we last saw on 27 February.

The volume balance is positive.

MACD left a positive cross on 10 August.

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Summary: Toncoin is still quoted in a rising trend but has a certain trait of ‘slight punctured tire appearance’. If it turns out that 4.69 is punctured without being quickly retaken, the risk is high for a decline towards the 2-level but before that we find support around 3.30. The risk is high for choppy choppy movements as long as neither 8.30 is passed nor 4.70 is punctured.  

was this week down and tested by the 100-day moving average. This weekend the standard line was also retaken and it looks like price will again test by the 8.3 level which if taken out sets the target towards the 10 level. What I do not want to see is a puncturing of last week's low at 6.35 as it risks triggering a challenging selling pressure down towards the May low at 4.60. Right now, however, I interpret that the chance of an upturn is greater than the opposite, but as I said, the standard is a bit of a watershed.

Resistance: 6.70 / 7.25 / 7.65 / 8.10
Support: 6.30 / 6.10 / 5.90 / 5.60 /

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the week around 36-.

Cardano: Approaching the tip of the falling wedge

In mid-June I wrote: ‘If 0.40 is punctured without a quick retracement, there is an imminent risk of a decline towards last year's low between 0.30-0.25.’

The expansion from the descending triangle was southwards and in early August 0.28 was reached which is so far the latest most significant low around the levels from October last year. Cardano fell by 3.1 per cent last week, bringing this year's decline to 44 per cent. In the weekly chart, it was the 5th week in a row to close in the red.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is since the end of June slightly downward. The trend phase indicator is noted since mid-April in the zone where we are told to be prepared for further decline.

The volume balance is negative since 12 April.

The MACD left a negative cross on 24 June but now we see signs that the negative momentum is waning and a new positive cross is approaching, in this case the first since 10 July.

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Summary: Cardano punctured the descending triangle as expected and has now fallen down to the levels prevailing in October last year. Now a falling wedge has developed and the price is now approaching the apex of this contraction. At the same time, the MACD is diverging positively, which is a sign that the negative momentum and selling pressure is fading. The last week has been characterised by small candles and the question is whether it is a build-up for a breakout above the falling resistance line or a puncture of 0.28 and a decline towards the October low at 0.24. The three years that I have statistics on, the period from now to the beginning of September has been positive in Cardano but then the years have ended with relatively choppy and bumpy movements. Now I want to see 0.36 retaken and then not followed by any new lower low.

Resistance: 0.35 / 0.39 / 0.42
Support: 0.32 / 0.30 / 0.28 / 0.25

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the week around 31+.

Avalanche: Fierce potential in the event of an eruption of the falling wedge

In mid-June I wrote: ‘The price is now challenging the yearly low at the 30 level, which should preferably not be punctured as it will most likely trigger increasing selling pressure with a view to the 20 level.’

Not unexpectedly, the support at the 30 level was punctured and the price has since moved down towards the November support around the 20/15 level, which is still respected. Avalanche fell by 3.5 per cent last week, bringing this year's decline to 46 per cent. It was the fourth week in a row that closed in the red.  

The long trend that I prefer to use the slope of the 200-day average to point out is slightly falling. The trend phase indicator is noted since mid-June in the zone where we are told to be prepared for further dips but reversals up from similar lows have historically had a good edge for upside.

MACD gave a sell signal on 29 July, but the downward momentum has slowed in the last week and now it looks like the first positive cross since 6 July is about to take effect.

The volume balance is negative since 13 April.

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Summary: Over the summer Avalanche has failed to break out of the falling trend and most recently it was the MA-100 that became overpowered and subsequently the price has fallen down to the 17 level that was respected in early August. In recent weeks, the price has moved within a relatively tight range with small candles indicating uncertainty. A puncture of the 17 level sets the sights on 10. On the positive scale, Avalanche looks oversold and is approaching the apex of a falling wedge. Expansion from falling wedges occurs in most cases to the upside. Given the appearance of the falling wedge, there is exciting potential up towards the 100 level. The MACD is showing a positive divergence and is approaching a positive cross which will be the first since early July. To start with, I would like to see the standard line at 25 retaken and not followed by any new lower low.

Resistance: 22.80 / 25.15 / 33.00
Support: 19.50 / 19.00 / 17.30

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 21+.

Polkadot: Buyers don't quite have what it takes to reverse the trend

In early June I wrote: ‘If the rising support line gives way, the target is initially set at 5.80.’

After the last analysis, the rising support line was punctured and the price initially fell down to 4.9, but then failed to break above the MA-100 and subsequently fell down towards 3.6 reached in early August. In the past week, Polkadot fell by 9.7 per cent, bringing the year's decline to 48 per cent. In the weekly graph, it was the fourth consecutive week of falling prices.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is slightly falling. The trend phase indicator is noted since mid-June in the area where we should be prepared for further decline.

The volume balance is negative.

The MACD left a sell signal on 23 July but in the last week the negative momentum has slowed down and is now approaching a positive cross.

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Summary: Despite several attempts by Polkadot to get back to a more positive technical appearance, investor confidence has remained low. The platform's OpenGov model has faced criticism, with some believing that inflation is occurring due to more DOT being created to cover expenses. Critics argue that unnecessary spending should be reduced to stabilise the economy within the Polkadot ecosystem. Now I would like to see the price take out the standard line to begin with and that it is not immediately followed by new lower lows.  In conclusion, Polkadot faces several challenges, both in terms of technological development and the confidence of its users and investors. Unless these issues are addressed, it may be difficult for the DOT to reverse the current negative trend. It is critical that October lows from last year are respected.

Resistance: 4.90-5.10/5.50/5.90-6.10/6.40
Support: 4.20 / 4.00 / 3.60 / 3.10

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 16+.

Chainlink: Buyers don't quite have what it takes to reverse the trend

In mid-June I wrote: ‘Now the MA-200 needs to retrace without being quickly punctured lest the odds swing in the sellers' favour.’

Buyers failed to recapture the MA-200 after the previous analysis, and the price punctured both the 11 level in early August and was down around 8 two weeks ago before the selling pressure at least temporarily subsided. In total, Chainlink fell by 3.6 per cent in the past week, which means that the year's decline is now written at 32 per cent. In the weekly chart, a doji formed which was also an inside candle which may be an indication that sellers are running out of fuel.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is slightly downward. The trend phase indicator is noted since 3 July in the zone where we are told to be wide open on further declines.

The volume balance is negative.

The MACD left on 29 June a sell signal around the zero but this was eliminated this weekend by a positive cross.

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Summary: Since the peak on 11 May, the significant highs and subsequent lows have been lower and lower. For this pattern to be broken, at least the last short-term top at 15 needs to be passed and the next low needs to be higher than the last. On a slightly positive note, the MACD left a positive cross at the weekend, although I would have liked to see a clearer divergence from the signal line. A first positive piece of the puzzle will be a crossing of the standard line. If the 8 level is punctured without being quickly retaken, the aim is set towards the 7 area to begin with.

Resistance: 10.85 / 11.55 / 15.00
Support: 9.55 / 8.10 / 7.50

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the week around 26-.

Uniswap: Positive cross in MACD but more is needed

In mid-June I wrote: ‘Should the price turn down already now and puncture the weekly low and the MA-200 at 8.60, the target is set at the 7 level to begin with.’

The price peaked in connection with the previous analysis and punctured the 8.60 level in early July, which quite expectedly triggered selling pressure. Not until the price reached 4.70 did buyers dare to show up again. Last week, Uniswap rose by 2.6 per cent, reducing the year's decline to 12 per cent. In the weekly chart a doji developed which was also an inside bar and had a bit of a bullish harami appearance.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is slightly rising. The trend phase indicator has turned up from an extreme low at 8.6 but there is a long way to go before the look is positive.

The volume balance is negative since 30 July.  

The MACD left a positive cross on 13 August.

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Summary: Uniswap is trapped in a large descending triangle and has fallen down below the MA-200. The G-forces (the four averages) are sorted for continued decline and unless the recent short-term top at 8.65 is retaken, I see bounces as short-term break formations in the ongoing decline. To start with, I want to see a strong close above the standard line and for it not to be immediately punctured. If it turns out that last Monday's low at 4.70 is punctured, there is a high risk of a decline towards 4.00-3.80.

Resistance: 6.60 / 8.00 / 8.60 / 9.15
Support: 6.10-5.90 / 5.35 / 4.70

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 65-.

ICP: Are we seeing sales pressure levelling off?

In mid-June I wrote: ‘Since 21 April, ICP has been caught in a trading range between 11.00 and 16.40. Whichever of these levels is taken out or punctured will either initiate a challenging decline or be the start of a new positive trend leg.’

Already at the beginning of the week following the last analysis, the 11 level was punctured and the price quickly pulled down to 5.84 which was reached in early July and is a level that still marks the last significant low point. In total, ICP fell by 3.0 per cent in the past week, bringing the year-to-date decline to 46 per cent. In the weekly chart, an extremely small doji developed which was the fourth week in a row to close in the red.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is slightly downward since mid-July. The trend phase indicator is noted since 11 June in the zone where we are told to be prepared for further decline.

The MACD left on 29 July a negative cross which is now about to be elimated by a positive cross.

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Summary: Internet Computer (ICP) aims to revolutionise the internet by offering a decentralised and open protocol that hosts websites and services directly on the blockchain. ICP has been caught in a falling wedge for some months and recently the MACD has started to diverge positively towards the price. Breakouts from falling wedges are in most cases upwards but so far the upper resistance line is intact.  Now I would like to see the standard line and MA-50 retrace without being followed by a new lower low to begin with. If 5.84 is punctured without a quick retracement, the target is set at 4.10 to start with.

Resistance: 7.85/8.30-8.65/10.97
Support: 6.80 / 6.30 / 8.84 / 5.00

The cycle indicator is noted for the week around 39+.