TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The following content is an automatic translation of Tobbe Rosén’s technical analysis, originally written in Swedish.

During the summer weeks, there will be analyses on slightly fewer underlying assets than usual. On 19 August, the technical analysis and Cryptonight will be back.

Bitcoin: Working on softening the MA-200

A week ago I wrote: "In the last week the price has fallen to puncture the MA-200 and now it will be interesting to see if there is enough confidence for the price to recover the MA-200 and standard line. What I want to see now is firstly a strong close above the previous day's high and then for the standard line and MA-200 to be retaken."

The past week started with a decline to 49000 but selling pressure subsided when the level was tested. On Thursday, we were treated to an extremely positive continuation formation that took Bitcoin up to the 200-day average, which is currently being tested. In total, Bitcoin rose by 1.0 per cent in the past week, bringing the year's gain to 45 per cent. In the weekly chart, a turtle soup developed.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising but the price has not yet managed to regain the level, although it is now being challenged. The trend phase indicator has now fallen into the zone where we are advised to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

The volume balance is negative since 14 June.

The MACD left a negative cross on 1 August which is still in play. However, in the last few days, the negative momentum looks to be waning.

‍

Summary: Buying interest came back as Bitcoin tested by the psychological support area around 50000 which I interpret as a floor until proven otherwise. The uncertainty that has prevailed in recent weeks in the financial markets is not specific to Bitcoin. So far, the price is trapped within the confines of a medium-term descending trend channel and as long as that is the case, there is more in favour of a decline than an increase. However, if it turns out that the 70000 level is retaken, we will see a new higher significant top for the first time since the end of March, which is a sign of strength. To begin with, however, I want the standard line to be respected and price to break up above the MA-200. There is a high risk of sharp reversals and choppy trading and until these we are invited to new higher lows, more in favour of downside than upside in the medium term.  

Resistance: 91980 / 62760 / 64235 / 65195
Support: 60000 / 58415 / 56500

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 85+.

Ethereum: Trying to regain the floor of the falling canal

A week ago I wrote: "What I now want to see is firstly a strong close above the previous day's high and then a resumption of the standard line and MA-200. Until either of these happens, the risk is high for further declines and new lower lows."

The past week started with a decline to yearly lows around the 2100 level where selling pressure subsided. On Thursday, a bullish engulfing was executed, which was the first continuation formation since 19 July. In total, Ethereum fell by 7.0 per cent in the past week, which means that the year's rise has now been reduced to 18 per cent. In the weekly chart, a positive reversal developed which, however, became the third week in a row to close in the red.

The long term trend that I use the 200-day moving average to point out is rising but the price has turned down and is now trading below the average. Last week the MA-50 cut down through the MA-200 in a death cross, the first since late August last year. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are told to be prepared for more decline.

The volume balance is negative since 25/6.

The MACD left on 27/8 a sell signal and is now noted below the zero. In recent days, however, the negative momentum has slowed somewhat in strength.

‍

Summary: After the recent accelerating decline, which has caused volatility to become extremely high, we are now seeing signs that both the negative momentum and volatility are slowing down. The odds of a positive trend change as volatility contracts after a sharp decline are good. The price is now working to get back into the falling medium-term channel where the floor is currently being tested. However, if it turns out that the next top will be lower than the standard line at 2840 and that leads to a new lower low, the risk increases that last week's low at 2115 will give way and that in turn triggers a deeper retest. To begin with, I would like to see the standard line retraced and then price breaking up above the MA-200. There is a high risk of sharp reversals and choppy trading, and until these we are offered new higher lows, more in favour of downside than upside in the medium term.  

Resistance: 2750 / 2840 / 3000 / 3090 / 3230
Support: 2550 / 2440 / 2320 / 2115

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 76+.

Solana: Breaking up again through MA-200

A week ago I wrote: "The risk of increasing volume during sharp down days warns that there may be more selling pressure on the cards, especially if the fib 62% for the July rally is not retraced. Even if we are offered a shorter upside bounce, my main thrust is that Solana needs to descend towards June and July lows at $120-100 before buyers venture back."

The past week started with a decline to the $110 level where selling pressure subsided on Monday followed by a test of the 200-day moving average. On Thursday, we were treated to a MA-200 icebreak and right now the price is testing the area between the 50- and 20-day moving averages. In total, Solana rose by 10 per cent this past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 54 per cent. In the weekly chart, a turtle soup developed.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising since early November. The trend phase indicator about a week ago dipped its toes into the equilibrium oscillation zone but has broken back up into the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies.

Volume balance is slightly negative.

MACD left a negative cross on 4 May but the negative momentum seems to be slowing down, at least in the short term.

‍

Summary: Solana is still within the confines of a medium-term falling trend channel. Volume during the rally at the beginning of last week was characterised by increasing volume, indicating that a recovery may be underway. If last week's low holds, we have a pattern similar to a "W formation". Although I interpret what is shown in the chart as positive, there is still more to prove before a new positive trend leg is confirmed. It is desirable that the $140 level holds up in future rallies. If the 140 level is punctured, the focus will be on last Monday's low, and if that level also gives way, there is a great risk of more challenging selling pressure than desired. Seasonally, Solana has been strong for the past three years from mid-June to early November, and so far there is not much technical evidence that contradicts a continued good performance.

Resistance: 163.50 / 165.00 / 185.00 / 188.40
Support: 150.80 / 147.50 / 141.40 / 129.50 110.00

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 84-.