TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The following content is an automatic translation of Tobbe Rosén’s technical analysis, originally written in Swedish.

During the summer weeks, there will be analyses on slightly fewer underlying assets than usual. On 17 August, the technical analysis and Cryptonight will be back.

Bitcoin: The master called the dog back home

A week ago I wrote: "The next resistance will be found around the falling resistance line that connects the falling highs since mid-March. As long as we are not invited to new lower highs and lows, the aim is set up towards the last ATH quotation at 73.800. If it turns out that last week's low at 63,400 is punctured, the aim is initially set towards the standard line at 61,460 which is a short-term watershed."

Last week started on the upside but sellers took over on Monday. In total, Bitcoin fell by 11 per cent this past week, which means that the year's rise has now been reduced to 43 per cent.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising but has been challenged for a few days now. The trend phase indicator has now fallen into the zone where we are advised to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

The volume balance is negative since 14 June.

The MACD left a negative cross on 1 August and is currently testing the zero zone.

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Summary: Buying interest waned just before the falling resistance line connecting the highs since mid-March was approached. Bitcoin is trapped since the end of June in the zone between 72000 and 53500. In the past week, the price has fallen down so that the MA-200 has been punctured and now it will be interesting to see if there is enough confidence for the price to be able to retake the MA-200 and the standard line. The price is now quoted right around fib 62% for the summer's rise and if the level is not respected, the target is set for the July low at 53500. There is now a high risk of sharp reversals and choppy trading, which is also consistent with the historical development from mid-August to mid-September. What I want to see now is firstly a strong close above the previous day's high and then a resumption of the standard line and MA-200. Until either of this happens, the risk is high for further decline and new lower lows.

Resistance: 61480 / 62730 / 65195
Support: 60000 / 58415 / 56500

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 82+.

Ethereum: Testing the spring and summer lows

A week ago I wrote: "Now it will be interesting to see if price continues to respect the 200-day average where the standard line is also noted. If it turns out that last week's low at 3085 gives way, the focus is on the area at 2800 that was tested in early July."

Last week started with a test of the 3400 level where both the fib 62% for the last weeks decline meets up as well as the zone at 3400. On Friday, both the standard line and MA-200 were punctured and the price plummeted towards the July low at 2800. In total, Ethereum fell by 10 per cent in the past week, which means that this year's rise has been reduced to 28 per cent. In the weekly chart, the bearish dark cloud cover I wrote about a week ago was thus confirmed.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising, but the price has turned down and is now quoted below the average. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are told to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading but is about to break down into the area where there is more chance of downside than upside.

The volume balance is negative since 25/6 but since the beginning of July it has been noted increasingly higher and is now approaching the average.

MACD gave a sell signal on 27 July and is now below zero.

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Summary: The negative appearance of new ever lower highs against a horizontal support line indicates that the risk is high for an expansion southwards. The spring and summer lows around 2800 are being punctured, setting the sights initially towards 2500. What I want to see now is firstly a strong close above the previous day's high and then a resumption of the standard line and MA-200. Until either of these happens, the risk of further decline and new lower lows is high. The period from now to the end of September has historically been one of the weaker ones in Etherum. When the price has been as oversold as now and quoted below the MA-200, the price has been higher a week later on 21 of the 40 occasions I can find.

Resistance: 3000 / 3090 / 3225
Support: 2855 / 2810-2790 / 2720

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 9-.

Solana: Testing of MA-200 and fib 62%

A week ago I wrote: "There is a good chance that we will be treated to a recoil shortly as several of the short term momentum indicators, including %b are showing negative divergences. What I would prefer not to see in a coming recoil is the standard line at 153 being punctured as it sets the target to primarily MA-200 at 143."

The past week started with an attempt at an upturn, but already on Monday a bearish engulfing with an extremely long tail on the upside was executed. The rest of the week saw increasingly lower prices and on Saturday the 200-day average was also punctured. In total, Solana fell by 22 per cent in the past week, which means that the year's rise has now been reduced to 41 per cent. In the weekly chart, the week developed into the worst since early July last year.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point to is rising since early November. The trend phase indicator has warned in recent months that if the area above 7 is vacated, there is a high risk of a significant top developing.

The volume balance is neutral.

The MACD left a negative cross on 4 May and also a negative trampoline last week.

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Summary: After a 60 per cent rally since the beginning of July, Solana was quoted with clear negative divergences at overbought levels ahead of the past week. The clear negative reversal from the level just below 200 was followed by powerful red candles which at the end of the week tested the MA-200. Now the short term momentum indicators are extremely tight on the downside. The risk of increasing volume during sharp down days warns that there may be more selling pressure among the cards, especially if the fib 62% for the July rally is not retraced. On the 19 similar occasions that I can find, the price has continued down for the next 5 days we 13 of these. Even if we are offered a shorter upside bounce, my main prediction is that Solana needs to get down towards the June and July lows at $120 before buyers venture back in. What I want to see now is firstly a strong close above the previous day's high and then a retracement of the MA-200 and standard line. Until either of these happens, the risk is high for further decline and new lower lows.

Resistance: 146.50 / 155.00 / 165.00 / 185.00 / 188.40
Support: 139.50 / 133.90 / 121.00 / 118.70

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 7-.