TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The following content is an automatic translation of Tobbe Rosén’s technical analysis, originally written in Swedish.

During the summer weeks, there will be analyses on slightly fewer underlying assets than usual. On 17 August, the technical analysis and Cryptonight will be back.

Bitcoin: New monthly high

A week ago I wrote: ‘At the end of last week, the MA-50 and MA-100 were also crossed, which indicates that the aim is set up towards the ATH at 73,800. Ideally, I would now like to see the 50-day average respected when it is retested, but above all that the standard line at 60,000 does not give way.’

Last week started with a retest of the 50-day moving average, which was respected, just what I wanted to see. The week ended with the previous July high at 68495 being passed, which makes me interpret the retest at MA-50 as a new higher low. In total, Bitcoin rose by 0.5 per cent this past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 60 per cent. In the weekly chart, a positive reversal developed that took off from the 20-week average. The month of July looks to be developing into a positive reversal.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising since the end of October and the price has since a couple of weeks retaken both the long and short averages. The trend phase indicator is now noted back in the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies.

The volume balance is negative since 14 June but shows signs of strengthening.

The MACD left a positive cross on the 13th of July and in the past week rose above the zero zone, which is another positive piece of the puzzle.

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Summary: Bitcoin this week recorded a new monthly high and respected the MA-50 on the retest last Thursday. For the second week in a row, a positive weekly candle developed. The next resistance is found around the falling resistance line that connects the falling highs since mid-March. As long as we are not invited to new lower highs and lows, the aim is set up towards the last ATH quotation at 73.800. If Bitcoin crosses the ATH level, we will find the next tough resistance area at 80,000 and then 85,000. If it turns out that last week's low at 63,400 is punctured, the target is set for the standard line at 61,460 which is a short-term watershed. Volatility and trend suggest buying on recoils but recommend that short-term momentum indicators are low on continuation formations to be worth buying.

Resistance: 70000 / 71800 / 72780 / 73835
Support: 66200 / 63400 / 61325

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 82+.

Ethereum: Testing the zone where MA-200 and standard line meet up

A week ago I wrote: ‘Provided that price does not break the standard line at 3200 where the MA-200 also meets up, conditions are now favourable for targeting the 4000 level. A close above 3660 is likely to be a trigger that further strengthens the buyers.’

Last week started with a negative bearish engulfing that triggered a decline to the standard line and 200-day average. In total, Ethereum fell by 7.2 per cent this past week, which means that the year's rise has been reduced to 43 per cent. In the weekly chart, a bearish dark cloud cover was executed, but with the smallest possible margin.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising and so far price is respecting the level. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are told to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

The volume balance has been negative since 25 June, but since the beginning of July it has been rising and is now approaching the average.

MACD left a negative cross in the zero zone on Friday, but so far the divergence from the signal line is non-existent and thus I do not attach much importance to this signal.

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Summary: Since the beginning of the year, the price has respected the blue rising trend line but on the last two declines, the level has been punctured. Now it will be interesting to see if the price continues to respect the 200-day average where the standard line is also noted. If it turns out that last week's low at 3085 gives way, the focus will be on the 2800 area that was tested in early July. If last week's high at 3565 is passed, the aim is initially set towards the May high at 3975. As long as the MACD is flat around zero and the trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are advised to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading, this is what I expect.

Resistance: 3325/3565/3890-3910/3975/4090
Support: 3200 / 3085 / 2860 / 2750

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 43+.

Solana: Negative divergence and overbought

A week ago I wrote: ‘The stochastic is at its highest level since 15 March, and this means that a negative candlestick formation that leads to the crossed resistance line being punctured risks triggering a challenging selling pressure. However, as long as the buyers come back and soak up the selling pressure at increasingly higher levels, there is more to suggest that we will be offered an upturn, which in that case is what we have seen in the autumn of both 2021 and 2023.’

The past week started with a test of the resistance level around the 190 top marked in late May. The short-term overbought condition caused the Solana to retrace to the falling support line that I wrote about a week ago and so far the level is respected. In total, Solana rose by 5.4 per cent in the past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 80 per cent. In the weekly chart, the fifth consecutive week closing in the upper half of the weekly candle made the candle the strongest since mid-March.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is ascending since early November. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies.

The volume balance is positive since 9 July.

The MACD left on 27 June a positive cross that is still in play.

Several of the short-term momentum indicators, including %b, are showing a negative divergence.

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Summary: Solana both started and ended the week with a test of the May peak just below the 190 level. This week Solana rebounded down to the support area at 165 that has been in play several times since March and this time the level looks to be respected. There is a good chance that we will soon be treated to a recoil as several of the short term momentum indicators, including %b are showing a negative divergence. What I would prefer not to see in a coming recoil is the standard line at 153 being punctured as it sets the target to primarily MA-200 at 143. If, on the other hand, 188 is passed without being quickly punctured, the target is primarily 210. However, as long as the buyers come back and soak up the selling pressure at increasingly higher levels, it is more likely that we will be offered further gains rather than the price puncturing the 120 level and thus probably triggering a challenging selling pressure as it means that the highs from May and July will qualify as a double top.

Resistance: 185.00 / 188.40 / 200.00 / 204.25 / 209.90
Support: 175.60 / 165.40 / 163.80 / 152.60 / 148.50

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 94+.