TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The following content is an automatic translation of Tobbe Rosén’s technical analysis, originally written in Swedish.

During the summer weeks, there will be analyses on slightly fewer underlying assets than usual. On 17 August, the technical analysis and Cryptonight will be back.

Bitcoin: Testing fib 50% for the autumn and winter rise

A week ago I wrote: "Should Bitcoin puncture the MA-200 around 58000, the target is set at 51000. My main track is that the buyers will come back before a possible distribution phase causes the price to puncture the MA-200 and that then the target is set towards new ATH notes. "

This past week started with a test of the under the cloud line cloud span b where the MA-20 also met up. The failed retest caused the price to pull down and also puncture the 200-day moving average. By Friday, the price was down and bounced on the support at 53500 which so far looks to be soaking up the selling pressure. The week ended with a test of the MA-200. In total, Bitcoin fell by 5.5 per cent this past week, which means that the year's rise has now been reduced to 36 per cent. In the weekly chart, it was the sixth week in a row that closed at the lower end and the last time we saw it was at the end of July/August last year.  

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising since late October. For the first time since October, Bitcoin has closed below the MA-200.
The trend phase indicator is noted below zero in the zone where we are told to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

The volume balance is negative since 14 June.

The MACD left a negative cross on 10 June and has since punctured the zero zone and also effected a negative trampoline a week ago. In the slightly positive scale, a positive divergence is noted in the histogram.

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Summary: Bitcoin punctured the 60,000 level last Thursday and was down and tested by 53,500 before buyers ventured back in. Zooming out, we see a clear accumulation level between 53,000 and 50,500 from February. This level should ideally not give way, but be quickly retaken, as it means that the 62% fib for the rise that started in October is also punctured and it will probably trigger a strong selling pressure down towards the last home port at 38,500. Another important watershed is the 55,000 level and it looks at least temporarily respected but a puncture is likely to send Bitcoin down towards fib 62% and the 52,000 level. If the fib 62% is punctured without being quickly retraced, the bull run that many are waiting for after the halving risks being delayed but most indications are that it will start later. As we see in the graph, the short-term trend is downward but the overall long-term trend is upward. Now I am waiting for the short and long trends to come back in line with each other. For starters, I now want to see Bitcoin move up above the zone between the ceiling of the short channel and 60,000. Several of the short-term momentum indicators are tight on the downside and tend to show positive divergences. Is that enough to trigger buy signals? Not yet anyway.

Resistance: 58850 / 61760 / 63800 / 67275
Support: 56500 / 53500 / 52150 / 50450

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 36+.

Ethereum: Puncturing last week's lows risks a strong negative price movement

A week ago I wrote: "Closest to the downside, we find important support at last week's low of 3230 where the long-term rising support line also meets up. If price punctures the rising support line and the MA-200 without quickly regaining the level, the target is set down towards the 2850/2800 area."

The past week started slightly upwards but as the area around MA-50 and the standard line approached, buying interest waned and sellers took over. On Thursday, the MA-200 was punctured, triggering a decline to the May lows at the 2800 level. In total, Ethereum fell by 10.2 per cent in the past week, which means that the year's rise has now been reduced to 33 per cent.  In the weekly chart, it was the fifth week in a row that closed at the lower end.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising. The trend phase indicator has fallen into the zone where we are told to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

The volume balance is negative since the 25/6.

The MACD left a negative cross on 6 June and so far I see no signs of a positive cross approaching.

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Summary: The long term trend in Ethereum is rising but in the short term the trend is negative. Last week, the low from the beginning of May was tested at 2810, which has so far been respected. If it turns out that the 2800 area is punctured without being quickly retaken, there is a risk of increasing selling pressure. The potential for a puncture of the May low can be found down to 1600, but that is not yet my main concern. The support area at 3000-2800 is a critical level that, if it does not hold, risks triggering selling pressure that could be more challenging than desired. Now I want to see the price first establish itself above the 200-day moving average and then the ceiling of the short-term channel to be regained. So far, I interpret the price movement in Ethereum as an impulse pattern that will lead to a price expansion northwards. However, if the May low is punctured without being quickly retraced, we get an indication of a decline that in the worst case can halve the price, but so far it is not my main track.

Resistance: 3100 / 3230 / 3355 / 3520
Support: 3050 / 2960 / 2810 / 2720

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 33+.

Solana: Testing and so far respecting MA-200

A week ago I wrote: "Stochastic is down below 20 and for the past week has diverged positively towards the price. The edge is good for the buyers to come back at this level but if that does not materialise then more weakness is to be expected. Now I want to see that the buyers are not counted out around the 200-day moving average and that the price resumes the standard line shortly."

Solana started the week with a crossing of the standard line but already on Tuesday the level was punctured and this led to selling pressure that on Thursday caused the price to close below the 200-day moving average. Over the weekend it looks like both the MA-200 and the standard line are about to be retaken. Overall, there was a marginal increase during the week, which means that the year's increase is now written at 39 per cent. In the weekly chart, a long legged doji developed which confirms that there is still uncertainty around the lower boundary of the descending triangle.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point to is rising since early November. The trend phase indicator has fallen into the zone where we are told to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

The volume balance is negative since 24 May but is now about to challenge the average.

The MACD left a positive cross on 27 June.

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Summary: Solana is still in a rising and positive long-term trend, but in the shorter term a falling triangle warns that there is a high risk of increasing selling pressure if the 120 level does not hold. In recent weeks, the price has hovered around the 200-day average, which I would prefer not to see punctured, but to see it immediately retaken. Since mid-June, the level has been retaken quickly every time the average has been penetrated. The 120 level is the last stop before the journey down towards the 100 level, which is a watershed for the autumn and winter upturn. There is a good chance that the buyers will come back at this level but if not, more weakness is to be expected. Now I want to see both the 200-day average and then the recent top at 155 retaken without being quickly followed by new lower lows.

Resistance: 145.90 / 154.80 / 174.50
Support: 137.60-135.50 / 130.00 / 121.00

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 54+.

Toncoin: Loading up for new record highs

On the eve of 27 May I wrote: "After repeatedly testing the 50-day moving average since the end of April, the price is again noted at the level where both the standard line and MA-50 meet up. On the upside, the area around 7.7 meets up as the latest most significant top."

The past week started with an attempt to take out the record high at 8.3 but so far there is not really the commitment to take the price up above the level. On Friday, the 50-day moving average was initially punctured but it was immediately retraced, effecting a turtle soup for upside. In total, Toncoin rose by 2.0 per cent in the past week, bringing the year's gain to a whopping 230 per cent. In the weekly chart, a bullish haram-like candle was formed.  

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is upward. The trend phase indicator is noted since the end of February in the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies.

The volume balance is positive.

The MACD left on 3 July a negative cross.

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Summary: Toncoin is still in a rising trend channel but was down this week and tested the 100-day moving average. This weekend the standard line was also retested and it looks like the price will retest the 8.3 level which if taken out sets the target at the 10 level. What I don't want to see is a puncturing of last week's low at 6.35 as it risks triggering a challenging selling pressure down towards the May low at 4.60. Right now, however, I interpret that the chance of an upturn is greater than the opposite, but as I said, the standard is a bit of a watershed.

Resistance: 7.85 / 8.30 / 9.00
Support: 7.30 / 6.75 / 6.35 / 5.60

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the week around 43+.