TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The following content is an automatic translation of Tobbe Rosén’s technical analysis, originally written in Swedish.

During the summer weeks, there will be analyses on slightly fewer underlying assets than usual. On 17 August, the technical analysis and Cryptonight will be back.

Bitcoin: Retesting the 60,000 level

A week ago I wrote: "As it now looks as if 65000 will also give way, there is increasing evidence in favour of a retest of the 60000 level which is a psychologically important level. The 60000 level has on several occasions lured back the buyers and it is likely that they will defend the level in an upcoming test."

Last week started with the lagging line puncturing the ichimoku cloud and it triggered a decline to the 58400 level where the buyers sucked up the selling pressure and brought about a close above the psychological 60,000 level. In total, Bitcoin fell by 4.5 per cent in the past week, which means that the year's rise has now been reduced to 45 per cent. In the weekly chart, it was the fifth week in a row to close at the lower end and the last time we saw it was at the end of July last year.  

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising since late October. The trend phase indicator in mid-May dipped its toes into the equilibrium oscillation zone but since then the indicator has been noted in the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies.

The volume balance is negative since 14 June.

The MACD left a negative cross on 10 June and has since punctured the zero zone. Although it is too early to speak of a turnaround, the histogram of decline has slowed down.

Summary: Bitcoin tested this week, again by the 60.000 level but also this time it attracted buyers. There is still a lot of pressure in both directions, so I expect a continued choppy period. If it turns out, as it currently looks like, that last week's puncture of 60,000 was a false breakout, that is a positive signal. As I have written many times before, strong rallies, such as the one we saw at the beginning of the year, are followed by some type of contraction or recoil. Should Bitcoin puncture the MA-200 around 58000, the target is set at 51000, but if and when that happens, I will return to it. My main track is that the buyers will come back before a possible distribution phase causes the price to puncture the MA-200 and that then the target is set towards new ATH notes.

Resistance: 62400 / 65195 / 37295 / 70000
Support: 60000 / 58415 / 56900 / 52950

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 45+.

Ethereum: Still respecting the 100-day average

A week ago I wrote: "If the June low is punctured, the target is set for 3200, but should this level also fail, it is urgent that the floor of the short-term channel be respected so that the target is not set for the April and May lows."

The past week started with a puncture of the 100-day moving average and a test of the floor of the short-term descending channel. In total, Ethereum fell by 3.0 per cent this past week, which means that the year's rise has now been reduced to 48 per cent.  In the weekly chart, it was the fourth week in a row that closed at the lower end.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies.

The volume balance is negative since Tuesday.

The MACD left on 6 June a negative cross. The histogram now indicates that the negative momentum is slowing down but there is still some risk that a negative trampoline may be about to materialise.

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Summary: The long term trend in Ethereum is up but in the short term some challenges have emerged. On the downside, we find important support at last week's low of 3230 where the long-term rising support line also meets up. Over the past weekend, we saw the trading volume in Ethereum increase by over 30 per cent against the average. For the past week, the price has been testing the strength of the 100-day average every day. If it turns out that the price punctures the rising support line and the MA-200 without quickly regaining the level, the target is set down towards the 2850/2800 area where, among other things, the lows from April and May meet up. To begin with, I would now like to see the standard line at 3560 crossed without being quickly punctured and then the channel ceiling for the short-term falling channel, which indicates that the buyers have once again taken over the baton.

Resistance: 3485/3560/3660/3730
Support: 3325 / 3235-3220 / 3065

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 44-.

Solana: Testing and so far respecting MA-200

A week ago I wrote: "If it turns out that the MA-200 is punctured without a quick retracement, the target is set for the 120 level which is the last stop before the trip down to the 100 level probably begins. The Stochastic is down below 20 and has in the last week diverged positively towards price. There is a good chance that buyers will come back around this level but if not, more weakness is to be expected."

The past week started with the MA-200 being punctured, but it resumed on Wednesday with the buy signal of the %b indicator. In total, Solana rose by 5.6 per cent this past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 39 per cent. It was the fifth week in a row that closed in the red. In the weekly chart, a bullish separating line developed, but with a bit too big a tail on the top.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising since early November. The trend phase indicator has fallen into the zone where we are told to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

The volume balance is negative since 24 May.

The MACD left on 27 May a negative cross that is still in play. Although the indicator has not left a positive cross yet, the negative momentum has slowed down somewhat in recent weeks.

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Summary: Solana is still in a rising and positive long-term trend. However, last week started with the puncturing of the rising support line, which sent the price down to the 200-day average. If it turns out that the MA-200 is punctured, the focus will be on the 120 level, which is the last stop before the journey down to the 100 level probably begins. Stochastic is down below 20 and for the past week has been diverging positively towards price. There is a good chance that the buyers will come back at this level but if not, more weakness is to be expected. Now, I want to see that the buyers are not counted out around the 200-day moving average and that price shortly retakes the standard line and subsequently the falling resistance line that connects the highs since 18 March.  

Resistance: 148.90 / 155.80 / 174.50
Support: 137.60-135.50 / 130.00 / 122.20

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 45-.