TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The following content is an automatic translation of Tobbe Rosén’s technical analysis, originally written in Swedish.

During the summer weeks, there will be analyses on slightly fewer underlying assets than usual. On 17 August, the technical analysis and Cryptonight will be back.

Bitcoin: MA-200 and standard line challenged

A week ago I wrote: "The 55,000 level is an important watershed and it looks, at least temporarily, to be respected. For starters, I now want to see Bitcoin move up above the zone between the ceiling of the short channel and 60,000."

This past week started with another test of the 55,000 level and this time the area was also respected. The week ended with both the MA-200 and the standard line being retaken. In total, Bitcoin rose by 3.3 per cent this past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 42 per cent. In the weekly chart, an inside bar developed and closed at the upper end, which was the first time since the end of May.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising since the end of October and on Sunday we were treated to an icebreak by the MA-200.

Volume balance is negative since 14 June.

MACD left a positive cross this weekend which was the first time since 14 May.

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Summary: Bitcoin made a new higher low at 54,280 at the start of the week and now looks set to make its way up through both the 200-day moving average and the standard line. If the standard line is crossed without being quickly punctured, it will be the first time since 15 May that we see it happen. Provided that the standard line and 60,000 do not give way, there are now good conditions for the next positive trend leg to begin. Although there are plenty of challenges left until new ATH notes take effect, a crossing of 60.380 where fib 38% for the winter rise is noted will strengthen the odds for more a more sustained rise. Should the price turn down and puncture the 52,000 level where fib 62% meets up, the risk is high for a substantial increase in selling pressure, but I will return to that when/if it happens.

Resistance: 60000 / 61760 / 63800 / 67275
Support: 59550 / 54280 / 53500 / 52150 / 50450

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 81+.

Ethereum: Puncturing last week's lows risks a strong negative price movement

A week ago I wrote: "If it turns out that the 2800 area is punctured without being quickly retaken, there is a risk of increasing selling pressure. Now I want to see price first establish itself above the 200-day moving average and then for the ceiling of the short-term channel to be retaken."

The past week started with a positive reversal with the appearance of a bullish piercing line. The price has subsequently crept up and now looks set to reclaim the MA-200. In total, Ethereum rose by 4.2 per cent this past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 40 per cent.  In the weekly chart, the candle closed as a positive inside bar.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are told to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

Volume balance is negative since 25/6 but has started to point up.

The MACD left this weekend a positive cross which was the first since 17 May.

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Summary: The long trend in Ethereum is rising and now it looks like the MA-200 will be retaken. Next on the upside is the standard line, which at the time of writing is being tested. Assuming the MA-200 holds, I want to see the ceiling of the short-term falling channel crossed, which means a breakout up above 3300.  So far, I interpret the price movement in Ethereum as an impulse pattern that will lead to a price expansion northwards. However, if the May low is punctured without being quickly retraced, we get an indication of a decline that in the worst case can halve the price. So far, my main track is that the buyers are on their way back and that it is only a matter of time until a new positive trend leg is confirmed.

Resistance: 3200 / 3355 / 3520
Support: 3130 / 3050 / 2960 / 2810

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 81+.

Solana: Double bottom of $155 is passed

A week ago I wrote: "Price has been hovering in recent weeks around the 200-day average, which I would prefer not to see punctured without an immediate retake. Since mid-June, every time the mean has been penetrated, the level has been quickly retaken. There is a good chance that buyers will come back at this level."

Last week started with a MA-200 icebreak but the price has since then continued to oscillate around the mean. There was a marginal increase this week, which means that the year's increase is now written at 42 per cent. In the weekly chart a small positive reversal developed which was fully embraced for the previous week's range.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising since early November. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are told to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

The volume balance is positive since 9 July.

The MACD left on 27 June a positive cross which is still in play now that the zero zone is being challenged.

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Summary: Solana has been getting more and more attention lately and is looking more and more like a challenger to Ethereum. Buyers seem to be coming back at higher and higher levels and there is now more and more evidence that the price will regain the MA-200 and take off towards the falling resistance line that meets up around the 170 level. If, on the other hand, 121 is punctured, there is a great risk that selling pressure will increase so that the price will fall towards the USD 100 level in the first instance. As long as the price stays above the MA-200, I interpret this to mean that the target is initially set up towards the 200-dollar level.

Resistance: 147.00 / 145.90 / 154.80 / 174.50
Support: 139.15 / 137.60-135.50 / 130.00 / 121.00

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 74+.