TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The following content is an automatic translation of Tobbe Rosén’s technical analysis, originally written in Swedish.

During the summer weeks, there will be analyses on slightly fewer underlying assets than usual. On 17 August, the technical analysis and Cryptonight will be back.

Bitcoin: Aiming at the floor in the contraction

A week ago I wrote: "If 65000 is punctured without a quick retake, the sights are set on 60000-56000 where we will find a zone that needs to be held in order not to threaten the long-term positive trend."

The past week started with a failed attempt to break up through the EMA-8 and the 100-day moving average. On Tuesday, both levels were punctured as well as the MA-50 and the week ended with a puncture of 65000. In total, Bitcoin fell by 2.7 per cent this past week, which means that the year's rise has now been reduced to 52 per cent. In the daily chart, it was the fourth week in a row that closed at the lower end and the last time we saw it was at the end of July last year.  

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising since late October. The trend phase indicator in mid-May dipped its toes into the equilibrium oscillation zone but since then the indicator has been noted in the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies.

The volume balance is negative since 14 June.

The MACD left a negative cross on 10 June and has since punctured the zero zone. Although it is too early to speak of a reversal, the histogram of decline has slowed down.

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Summary: Bitcoin fell again this past week and the crypto market is still generally a bit hesitant. It's been almost four months since the ATH level was set and since then the price has been caught in a consolidation. Since it now looks like 65000 will also give way, there is more and more evidence in favour of a new test of the 60000 level, which is a psychologically important level. The 60000 level has on several occasions attracted the buyers back and it is likely that they will also defend the level in an upcoming test. The price was pushed up towards the ATH level because supply failed to outstrip demand earlier this year, but some influence probably came from the hope that the Fed would cut the key interest rate earlier and more times in 2024 than now seems to be the case. Historically, when the Fed has been hawkish, it has disadvantaged Bitcoin. My main track is that it will be wobbly and choppy as long as none of the consolidation constraints are taken out or punctured. So far, however, Bitcoin is making increasingly higher significant bottoms which is positive but the lower highs of the last few months I place in the negative bucket.

Resistance: 66455 / 70000 / 70180
Support: 63300 / 62000 / 60150

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 28+.

Ethereum: Continuing southwards inside the short-term descending channel

A week ago I wrote: "If last week's low at 3360 is punctured without being quickly retaken, we will find the next important support at the rising support line which, ahead of the start of the week, is noted just below 3100."

The past week started with a test of the standard line but the price continues to oscillate between the 50- and 20-day averages within the confines of the short-term descending channel. In total, Ethereum fell by 1.4 per cent this past week, which means that the year's increase is now written at 54 per cent. Just like the week before, the past week also developed into a positive reversal but with a new lower low.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies.

The volume balance is positive since 23 May.

The MACD left on 6 June a negative cross and for the last two weeks has challenged the zero zone which is a support area.

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Summary: The long term trend in Ethereum is rising but in the short term some challenges have emerged. Since the end of May, the price has been quoted within the limit of a falling trend channel. In recent months, the price has fluctuated between 3000, where the MA-200 now also meets, and 4000, which was marked in early May. For the past two weeks, however, the area around 3350 has absorbed selling pressure when the level has been tested. Although the long-term trend is still up, short-term moving averages and the MACD indicator are showing weakness. The price has repeatedly encountered resistance around 3750-4000 but so far has support at the 3000 area. If the price falls below the April and May lows, the next support will be found around 2750. Should the price take out the top from the beginning of May, there are good conditions for a new positive period for Ethereum. Now I want to see the standard line at 3620 crossed without being quickly punctured and then the channel ceiling of the short-term falling channel.

Resistance: 3600 / 3665 / 3730 / 3890 / 3975
Support: 3520-3490 / 3380-3355 / 3220

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 51-.

Solana: Good edge for upward bounce but do buyers have what it takes?

A week ago I wrote: "If the blue rising support line is punctured, we will find the next support around the 200-day moving average, which for the week is meeting up around the 130 level, but the risk is also increasing that the downside will be even more challenging."

The past week started with a negative candle which on Tuesday continued the price down below the rising support line and has since tested the 200-day moving average. In total, the Solana fell by 6.8 per cent in the past week, bringing the year's gain to 32 per cent. It was the fifth week in a row to close in the red.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising since the beginning of November. The trend phase indicator is now noted in the borderland between positive trend and the equilibrium swing zone.

The volume balance is negative since 24 May.

The MACD left a negative cross on 27 May that is still in play. Although the indicator has not yet left a positive cross, the negative momentum has slowed somewhat in the past week.

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Summary: Solana is still in a rising and positive long-term trend. However, the past week started with the puncturing of the rising support line, which sent the price down to the 200-day average. If it turns out that the MA-200 is punctured, the focus will be on the 120 level, which is the last stop before the journey down to the 100 level probably begins. Stochastic is down below 20 and for the past week has been diverging positively towards price. There is a good chance that the buyers will come back at this level but if not, more weakness is to be expected. Now, I want to see that the buyers are not counted out around the 200-day moving average and that price shortly retakes the standard line and subsequently the falling resistance line that connects the highs since 18 March.  

Resistance: 141.30/151.80/161.80/175.00
Support: 128.60-128.00/125.70/122.90/118.70

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 36+.