TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The following content is an automatic translation of Tobbe Rosén’s technical analysis, originally written in Swedish.

Bitcoin: Now challenging 65000 which should preferably not give way

A week ago I wrote: "If the price breaks up through the falling resistance line and of course the ATH, a rise of about 15000 dollars is indicated, which means a rise towards 90,000 dollars. However, if the standard line at 66280 is punctured without being quickly retraced, the target is 60000 and the May low which is a significant bottom."

Last week started with a doji and already on Tuesday the standard line was punctured and the price quickly fell down to the 50-day average that has been tested every day since then. On Friday, the price was down and touched the 65000 level which is still respected. In total, Bitcoin fell by 4.5 per cent in the past week, bringing the year's gain to 56 per cent. In the weekly chart, a bearish engulfing developed.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is ascending since late October. The trend phase indicator in mid-May dipped its toes into the equilibrium oscillation zone but since then the indicator has been noted in the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies.

The volume balance is negative since 14 June.

The MACD left a negative cross on 10 June and has since pulled down to the zero zone which is currently being challenged.

‍

Summary: Bitcoin is still in a rising long-term trend but has been in a low-volatility mode since the 14 March peak and ATH at 73836. A pass up through the falling resistance line and then the ATH quote indicates that a new positive trend leg with good potential has started. Stochastic is down to its lowest level since the end of January, and a reversal up from this level has good potential to trigger the start of the next positive trend leg. If it instead turns out that 65000 is punctured without being quickly retaken, the aim is set towards 60000-56000 where we find a zone that needs to be held so that the long-term positive trend is not threatened.

Resistance: 67180 / 68490 / 70180 / 71975
Support: 65000 / 64240 / 62000 / 60150

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 21+.

Ethereum: Testing MA-50 which is respected - so far

A week ago I wrote: "If price instead punctures the dojin's low at 3521 from 23 May, a recoil down towards the standard line around 3400 may be needed. A puncture of both the standard line and MA-50, on the other hand, risks resulting in challenging selling pressure."

The past week started with a bearish engulfing followed by a decline to the standard line and MA-50 on Tuesday. On Friday, the MA-50 was retested and so far it looks like the level is being respected. In total, Ethereum fell by 2.7 per cent in the past week, which means that the year's increase is now written at 57 per cent. The past week developed into a positive reversal even though there was still some way to go to the weekly high at the close.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies.

The volume balance is positive since 23 May.

The MACD left on 6 June a negative cross but is now challenging the zero zone which is a support area.

‍

Summary: Even though Ethereum has recoiled and is listed in a short-term falling channel, the overall trend is clearly positive. If last week's low at 3360 is punctured, we will find the next important support at the rising support line, which is noted just below 3100 at the start of the week. Seasonally, the coming month has not been one of the best of the year for Ethereum, rather the worst. The short-term momentum indicators have been tight on the downside and this is of course a positive piece of the puzzle that suggests that a local low may have been established on Friday. If the MACD respects the zero line and we are offered a positive cross, I interpret it as a buy signal. Now I want to see the standard line at 3667 crossed and then the channel ceiling of the short-term falling channel, then most things speak in favour of the next positive trend leg being initiated.  

Resistance: 3600 / 3665 / 3730 / 3890 / 3975
Support: 3520 / 3500 / 3380-3355 / 3220

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 57+.

Solana: It's time to prove it

A week ago I wrote: "If the 13 May low is punctured at 138, the risk of a decline towards primarily the MA-200 at 125 increases. As long as none of the boundary lines of the triangle-like formation are crossed, we should be prepared for sharp reversals when any of the levels are tested."

The past week started with the 50-day moving average being punctured. The week ended with a test of the rising support line around 140. In total, Solana fell by 11 per cent in the past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 42 per cent. In the weekly chart, it was the fourth week in a row to close in the lower part of the weekly candle.  

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising since early November. The trend phase indicator made its way on 16 May up into the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies.

The volume balance is negative.

The MACD left on 27 May a negative cross that is still in play.

‍

Summary: The price is still trapped in a trading range that has taken the shape of a triangle. If the price breaks through the falling resistance line, the target is initially set at the 210 level. If, on the other hand, the rising support line is punctured, we will find the next support around the 200-day moving average, which for the week meets up around the 130 level, but the risk increases that the downside in this case may be more challenging than desired. Now I want to see stochastic turn up and price take out the standard line and then the falling resistance line that connects the highs since 18 March.  

Resistance: 153.75/156.80/162.30/175.60
Support: 139.50 / 130.00 / 125.70 / 122.90

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 19+.

Binance BNB: Selling pressure appears to be easing around MA-100

A week ago I wrote: "The question now is whether the short-term overbought condition will lead to a recoil and, if so, when buyers will be prepared to re-enter and buy the dip. A puncture of the standard line at 640 that is not immediately retraced sets the sights on the 600/580 level."

The past week began with the standard line being punctured and this sent Binance down to the zone around 600, which is still respected. In total, BNB fell by 11 per cent in the past week, which means that this year's rise is now written at 94 per cent. In the weekly chart a bearish harami formed.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies. However, the high level of the indicator warns that a significant top is approaching.

The volume balance is neutral.

The MACD left on 11 June a negative cross but is now approaching the zero zone which is a support area.

The Stochastic is now down to an extremely low level and the cycle indicator has left two positive mini divergences in the last week.

‍

Summary: In the short term, Binance is oversold and there are now good conditions for an upside bounce. This weekend, the price was down and tested by the 100-day average which is so far respected. If it turns out that the MA-100 is punctured, the sights are set on the support area found between 560 and 500. So far, the outlook is positive and the conditions are good for a positive trend leg to begin shortly. A puncture of the MA-100 at 590 that is not immediately retraced sets the sights on 560 in the first place. A positive continuation formation (clear closing above the previous day's high in the upper third) is already worth buying.

Resistance: 615 / 640 / 675 / 690-721
Support: 600-590 / 580 / 560 / 537

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 20+.

XRP: Working on softening the standard line

A week ago I wrote: "To start with, I would like to see price retake the standard line at 0.52 without immediately puncturing the level. However, given the momentum and volume balance, the undertone is currently slightly negative."

Last week started with a doji testing the standard line and the close also tested the sentiment level. Since mid-April, the price has been testing the area between 0.48-0.43. This support area has been tested on several occasions since August last year but on each occasion the buyers have come back. In total, XRP fell by a marginal 0.4 per cent this past week, bringing this year's decline to 20 per cent. In the weekly chart, a doji developed and closed at the upper end of the weekly candlestick range.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is slightly downward. The trend phase indicator is noted since the end of April in the zone where we are told to be prepared for further dips.

The volume balance is neutral since 25 May.

The MACD left at the end of the week a sell signal.

‍

Summary: XRP is still working on testing off the standard line but has failed the attempts in the last week. There are plenty of resistance levels on the upside that need to be taken out before the price has pulled up above the MA-200 and can be said to be in a positive trend. A first positive piece of the puzzle will be a clear close above the standard line, provided the level is not immediately punctured.  However, given the momentum and volume balance, the undertone is slightly negative at the moment and it is getting to the point where buyers are losing further confidence. However, we are seeing small signs that the negative momentum may be fading.  

Resistance: 0.51 / 0.54-0.56 / 0.60 / 0.64
Support: 0.48 / 0.46-0.43 / 0.35

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 55+.

Uniswap: So far, the standard line is respected

A week ago I wrote: "However, the odds are weighted in favour of expansion to the north. As long as the standard line at 9.35 is not punctured, there are good conditions for the next trend leg to be positive and worth following. A positive continuation formation is worth buying, but in that case the stops should not be placed so far below the standard line."

This past week started with a puncture of the standard line and the price tested by the MA-50 but quickly turned up and is now back at the May high around the 12 level. In total, Uniswap rose by 13 per cent in the past week, which means that the year's increase is now written at 58 per cent. In the weekly chart, the week developed into a positive reversal.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is slightly rising. The trend phase indicator is now noted in the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies.

The volume balance is positive since the 5th of June.  

The MACD left on Saturday a buy signal.

Summary: The long-term trend is still rising and positive. At the beginning of June a genuine golden cross was made and this weekend we were treated to a buy signal in the MACD. If the price breaks up through the 12 level, the target is set at 13.30 to begin with. If it turns out that the price turns down already and punctures the week's low and the MA-200 at 8.60, the target is set at the 7 level. This is a good edge for Uniswap to break up through the 12 level and begin the upward phase towards the annual high level around 17.

Buyers are not driving the upside with the same vigour as in mid/late May. However, the odds are in favour of a northward expansion. As long as the standard line at 9.35 is not broken, there are good conditions for the next trend leg to be positive and worth following. If, on the other hand, the standard line is punctured without being quickly retraced, there is a great risk of a decline to at least the 200-day average around 8.50. A positive continuation formation is worth buying, but stops should not be placed so far below the standard line.

Resistance: 11.90-12.10 / 12.50 / 13.35
Support: 10.70 / 9.60 / 9.20 / 8.75 / 8.25 / 7.70

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 83+.

Cardano: Critical support level around the year low

Two weeks ago I wrote: "Now I want to see price close strongly above the standard line and not immediately puncture the level."

Last week started with a puncture of the minor support at 0.43 and gradually descended towards the April and annual lows at 0.41. In total, Cardano fell by 5.4 per cent in the past week, which means that the year's decline is now estimated at 30 per cent. In the weekly chart, it was the fourth week in a row to close downwards and also in the lower parts of the weekly candles.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is still slightly upward but the price is noted since 23 April below the long average. The trend phase indicator is noted since mid-April in the zone where we are told to be prepared for further decline.

The volume balance is negative since 12 April.

The MACD gave a sell signal on 27 May and executed a negative trampoline on 7 June.

‍

Summary: MA-200 is pointing up but in early May a death cross was executed and last week MA-100 also punctured the primary trend. Cardano is now in a falling triangle and is challenging support around the April and year lows at 0.41-0.40. If 0.40 is punctured without being quickly retraced, there is an imminent risk of a decline towards last year's low around 0.25. To begin with, I would like to see the standard line at 0.45 retraced and not immediately punctured, and then the price needs to rise above MA-200 before I become positive on Cardano.

Resistance: 0.42 / 0.47 / 0.51-0.53
Support: 0.41-0.40 / 0.35 / 0.30 / 0.24

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the week around 28+.

Avalanche: Testing critical support around $30

Three weeks ago I wrote: "Should the 30 level give way, the late November accumulation zone around 25-19 may need to be visited."

The past week started tentatively but the price has now fallen to the November accumulation zone, challenging the 30 level. In total, Avalanche fell by 5.7 per cent in the past week, which means that the year's decline is now written at 21 per cent. In the weekly chart, it was the third consecutive week of declines and now the 52-week average is being tested.

The long trend that I prefer to use the slope of the 200-day average to point out has been rising since the beginning of December, but the price has so far not managed to take out the level without quickly falling back and in several cases puncturing the average. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are told to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading but is not far from descending into the zone where we should be prepared for increasing selling pressure.

The MACD left a sell signal on 6 June that is still in play.

Volume balance is negative since 13 April.

‍

Summary: The price is now challenging the yearly low at the 30 level, which should preferably not be punctured unless the level is quickly retaken. If the 30 level is punctured without being quickly retraced, it will most likely trigger increasing selling pressure and then the risk of a decline towards the 20 level or lower is quite high. However, it is slightly positive that the volume around the support is low and that there is a positive divergence against both MACD and Stochastic, which are also quoted low. Now I want to see the standard line retraced to begin with and then the MA-200 and the recent short-term top at 42 from mid-May.

Resistance: 34.00 / 35.50 / 38.80 / 41.80
Support: 30.00 / 27.20 / 24.70 / 19.00

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 21+.