TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The following content is an automatic translation of Tobbe Rosén’s technical analysis, originally written in Swedish.

Bitcoin: Lower volatility which is good in case of an outbreak

A week ago I wrote: "As long as buyers come back and soak up selling pressure before the standard line is punctured, the chances for upside are greater than for downside, in the short term. The small overlapping candles we've seen this past week could be a sign that sellers are running out of fuel. Until proven otherwise, meaning the May lows are punctured, I interpret it as Bitcoin loading up for the next positive trend leg."

Until proven otherwise, meaning the May lows are punctured, I interpret it as Bitcoin loading up for the next positive trend leg."This past week started with a rise towards the falling resistance line that connects the highs since mid-March. Once again, the level proved too tough to cross and Bitcoin is once again making a new move. In total, Bitcoin rose by 2.4 percent in the past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 64 percent. In the weekly chart, it was the third week in a row that closed as a negative reversal.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is ascending since late October. The trend phase indicator in mid-May dipped its toes into the equilibrium oscillation zone but since then the indicator has been noted in the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies.

The volume balance is neutral.

MACD is largely directionless but noted in the positive part.

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Summary: Bitcoin continues to charge up ahead of a breakout up above the falling resistance line that connects the highs since the last ATH quote on March 14 at 73836. Since the low at 56500 in early May, several new higher lows have been effected. Whenever a recoil has started in recent weeks, buyers have quickly been there to soak up the selling pressure. If the price breaks through the falling resistance line and of course the ATH, a rise of about 15000 dollars is indicated, which means a rise towards 90,000 dollars. If the standard line at 66280 is punctured without being quickly retraced, the aim is set towards 60000 and the May low which is a significant bottom, which should preferably not give way. Volatility has now contracted so much that a breakout with increasing volume is probably worth catching. Positive continuation formations are worth buying down towards the standard line, but if declines become deeper than that, one should demand confirmation or a clearly positive candlestick formation at a critical support. Until proven otherwise, meaning the May low is punctured, I interpret it as Bitcoin loading up for the next positive trend leg.

Resistance: 69535 / 71530 / 71970-71980 / 72780
Support: 68300 / 66585 / 66000 / 64865 / 64240 / 61300

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 47-.

Ethereum: Taking a much-needed break before the next outbreak attempt

A week ago I wrote: "The positive volume balance and trend phase suggest that a future expansion will take place to the north. Should the price pull down and puncture the standard line at 3415, the risk increases that the May low at 2860 will be tested, which is not yet my main track. To begin with, it will be interesting to see which of the levels of the long dojin from last Thursday is crossed or punctured, it will probably be a good indication of the direction of the expansion."

The past week started as the previous one ended, choppy and bumpy. The week ended with a decline towards the low of the doji from May 23, which is more and more looking like a strong support. In total, Ethereum fell by 3.2 percent in the past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 62 percent. The past week developed into a negative reversal.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is ascending. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies.

The volume balance is positive since May 23 but is now approaching the average.

The MACD left on June 6 a negative cross.

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Summary: After the sharp rise two weeks ago to a new 2-month high, I interpret what we are now seeing as a healthy contraction and a pause formation before the next positive trend leg is initiated. The run-up ahead of the ETF approval led to extremely tight momentum indicators but these tensions have now eased. If the latest top at 3974 is passed, the target is set at 4400 but on the way, 4090 needs to be passed which means a new two-year high. If the price instead punctures the dojin's low at 3521 from May 23, a recoil down towards the standard line around 3400 may be needed. Although ETHUSD reached a new two-month high after the ETF announcement, another period of consolidation may be needed before a new positive trend leg will begin. A puncture of the standard line/MA-50, on the other hand, risks resulting in heavy selling pressure.

Resistance: 3850 / 3975 / 4094-4104 / 4250
Support: 3700 / 3625 / 3520 / 3500 / 3355 / 3220

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 41-.

Solana: Approaching the tip of the triangle with a decreasing volatility

A week ago I wrote: “As long as none of the restriction lines in the triangle-like formation are crossed, we should be prepared for sharp reversals when any of the levels are tested/passed.”

The past week started with a doji that was passed but already at 176 the buying interest waned and the price has since tested the rising support line where the 50-day average also met up. In total, Solana fell by 1.7 percent in the past week, which means that this year's rise is now written at 60 percent. In the weekly chart, the last three weeks have developed into relatively small dojis that each closed lower than the previous week.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising since early November. The trend phase indicator made its way on May 16 into the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies.

The volume balance is negative.

The MACD left on May 27 a negative cross that is still in play.

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Summary: The price is still trapped in a trading range that has taken the shape of a triangle. If the price breaks through the falling resistance line, the target is initially set at the 210 level. On the other hand, if the low from May 13 is punctured at 138, the risk of a decline towards the MA-200 at 125 increases. As long as none of the boundary lines in the triangle-like formation are crossed, we should be prepared for sharp reversals when any of the levels are tested. Now, volume is allowed to increase and the price to break up through the falling resistance line, which is likely to initiate the next positive trend leg. If, on the other hand, the rising support line is punctured, the target is set for the 200-day moving average. Considering that the level is now relatively low, the conditions are good for a breakout from the triangle to lead to an exciting trend leg.

Resistance: 167.40 / 169.50 / 175.60
Support: 158.90 / 153.75 / 148.00

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 47-.

Binance BNB: Continuing testing of the level around the standard line

On May 13 I wrote: “Whichever of the 645 or 496 levels is crossed or punctured is likely to be followed by a clear move in that direction.”

It was the 645 level that was taken out on June 4 and it resulted in a 15 percent gain in just a few days but on Thursday a recoil began. In total, the BNB rose by 15 percent in the past week, which means that this year's rise is now written at 120 percent. In the weekly chart, a powerful breakout candle formed, noting a new ATH.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is ascending. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies. However, the high level of the indicator warns that a significant top is approaching.

The volume balance is positive.

The MACD left on June 3 a buy signal that is still in place.

Stochastic is at its highest level since mid-March, which means that the risk of a recoil is relatively high.

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Summary: As I wrote two weeks ago, when any of the support or resistance levels were taken out or punctured, the conditions were right for a clear expansion. In this case, there was an expansion to the north and in just a few days the price rose by 15 percent. The question now is whether the short-term overbought situation will lead to a recoil and, if so, when buyers will be prepared to step back in and buy the dip. A puncture of the standard line at 640 that is not immediately retraced sets the target at the 600/580 level. A positive continuation formation (clear close above the previous day's high in the upper third) is already worth buying.

Resistance: 690-721 / 735 / 785
Support: 660 / 625 / 610-590

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 83-.

ICP: Sellers seem to be taking over

A week ago I wrote: "Since April 21, ICP has been caught in a trading range between 11.00 and 16.40. Whichever of these levels is taken out or punctured will either initiate a challenging decline or be the start of a new positive trend leg."

The past week has been characterized by uncertainty, resulting in the price hovering around the 200-day moving average. In total, the ICP fell by 7.7 percent last week, which means that the year's decline is now written at 18 percent. In the weekly chart, the weekly candle developed into a negative reversal.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is still upward and the price has the last two weeks tested by the average. The trend phase indicator is noted since May 10 in the zone where we are told to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

The volume balance is negative.

The MACD lacks slope and is noted below the zero zone which means that a negative cross leaves a sell signal.

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Sammanfattning: ICP har sedan den 21 april fångats i en tradingrange mellan 11,00 och 16,40. Den av dessa nivåer som tas ut eller punkteras kommer antingen att inleda en utmanande nedgång alternativt bli startskottet på ett nytt positivt trendben. Nu ser vi tecken på att MA-200 är på väg att punkteras och om inte nivån snabbt återtas triggas troligen ett tilltagande säljtryck. Nu vill jag se att MA-200 återtas och hålls och därefter en passering av den kortsiktiga toppen från den 21 maj.

Motstånd: 12,60 / 13,00 / 13,80/ 15,70-16,40
Stöd: 11,32 / 11,20 / 10,50 / 9,50

Cykelindikatorn noteras inför veckan kring 39-.

Uniswap: So far, the standard line is respected

A week ago I wrote: "After a rise of almost 80 percent in two weeks, Uniswap is now taking a much-needed break. As long as the standard line at 9.25 is not punctured, there is a good chance that the next trend leg will be positive and worth following."

This past week started with a doji testing the standard line and again holding the support level. The week ended with another test of the sentiment level, which was also respected this time. In total, Uniswap fell by a marginal 0.2 percent this past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 36 percent. In the weekly chart, a doji developed with a clear tail on the upper side.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is slightly rising. The trend phase indicator is now noted in the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies.

The volume balance is positive since June 5.  

The MACD left on June 6 a negative cross but than April 23 a positive cross which is still in play but the most likely is that it will be eliminated by a negative cross when the week starts.

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Summary: Buyers are not driving the gains with the same vigor as in mid/late May. However, the odds are that the expansion will be northward. As long as the standard line at 9.35 is not punctured, there are good conditions for the next trend leg to be positive and worth following. If, on the other hand, the standard line is punctured without being quickly retraced, there is a great risk of a decline to at least the 200-day average around 8.50. A positive continuation formation is worth buying, but stops should not be placed so very far below the standard line.

Resistance: 10.00-10.20 / 12.00 / 12.50
Support: 9.90 / 9.20 / 8.65 / 8.25 / 7.70

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 33-.

XRP: Turtle soup-like reversal ends the week

A week ago I wrote: "If it turns out that last week's low at 0.51 is punctured without being quickly retaken, the target is set for 0.43 which was marked in mid-April. To start with, I would like to see the price retake the standard line at 0.52 without immediately puncturing the level."

The past week started with a bullish engulfing but it was not followed by any clear engagement and already on Wednesday a doji developed at the 20-day moving average. In total, XRP fell by 4.6 percent in the past week, which means that this year's decline is now written at 20 percent. In the weekly chart, a positive reversal developed that almost closed as a Turtle soup.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is slightly downward. The trend phase indicator is noted since late April in the zone where we are told to be prepared for further dips.

The volume balance is neutral since May 25.

The MACD left at the end of the week a sell signal.

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Summary: XRP punctured the support at 0.47 at the end of the week but turned, at least temporarily, back up to close above the support. If it turns out that last week's low at 0.45 is punctured without being quickly retaken, the target is set at 0.43 which was marked as the long legged dojin's low in mid-April. To start with, I want to see price retake the standard line at 0.52 without immediately puncturing the level. However, it is only if the MA-200 at 0.58 is retaken and held that the conditions for an uptrend are strengthened. However, given the momentum and volume balance, the undertone is slightly negative at the moment and it is becoming a matter of time if buyers are not to lose further confidence.

Resistance: 0.52/0.54-0.56/0.60/0.64
Support: 0.48 / 0.45-0.43 / 0.35

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 56-.

Chainlink: It's time to prove it

Two weeks ago I wrote: "Now I don't want to see price turn down and puncture the standard line at 14.90 unless the level is quickly retaken. Now I want to see new higher lows followed by new higher highs which means targeting the top from early May at 23. If it turns out that the standard line is punctured, target the zone between 13.0-11.9."

The past week both started with a bullish engulfing but already on Wednesday Chainlink peaked at 19.22 and turned down towards the zone where MA-200, Standard Line and MA-50 meet up. In total, Chainlink fell by 14 percent in the past week, which means that the year's rise has now been reduced to 6.0 percent. In the weekly chart, a negative Candle formed and closed relatively low.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is slightly upward but is now being challenged. The trend phase indicator is noted since May 31 in the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies.

The volume balance is negative.

The MACD left on June 5 a negative cross.

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Summary: After the peak at 19.20 on May 29, the price has rebounded to the area around the MA-200. On Friday, the MA-200 was punctured but buyers found a foothold around the 50-day moving average. It is now up to Chainlink to prove itself and if the MA-50, where fib 62% is also noted, gives way without a quick retracement, the next support will be found at the 13 level. Now the MA-200 needs to be retaken without being quickly punctured in order for the odds not to swing over in the sellers' favor.  

Resistance: 16.50 / 17.70 / 18.65 / 19.20
Support: 15.50 / 15.15 / 12.85