TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The following content is an automatic translation of Tobbe Rosén’s technical analysis, originally written in Swedish.

Bitcoin: Charging phase but slightly positive undertone

A week ago I wrote: “When the price reached the falling resistance line connecting the ATH peak and the April high, a recoil was initiated. It is now good if the standard line at is not punctured as it risks triggering a decline towards the May low at 56500 or MA-200 at 53000. So far, I interpret the ongoing recoil as healthy.”

The past week started with a test of the 70000 level but the level became overpowered and the price fell back towards the 20-day average reached at the end of the week. In total, Bitcoin fell by 2.3 percent in the past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 60 percent. In the weekly chart, however, a bearish harami turned the weekly candle into a negative reversal while the monthly candle for May became a bullish piercing line.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is ascending since late October. The trend phase indicator in mid-May dipped its toes into the equilibrium oscillation zone but has rebounded into the area where we are advised to act with positive trend-following strategies.

The volume balance is negative since April 25.

MACD left on Friday a negative cross. If the divergence increases towards the signal line, there is a risk that selling pressure will increase.

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Summary: Since the ATH on March 14, Bitcoin has recorded a new lower high and the question now is whether the May high at 72000 will be a lower high, which we will not confirm until 60150 is punctured. As long as buyers come back and soak up selling pressure before the standard line is punctured, the chances of a rise are greater than a fall, in the short term. If the standard line at 66000 gives way, the risk of a decline towards the 60000 level is high. The small overlapping candles we have seen in the last week may be a sign that the sellers are running out of fuel. Now I would like to see first a positive candlestick formation closing strongly above the previous day's high and then the May peak at 72000 being crossed. Until proven otherwise, meaning that the May low is punctured, I interpret it as Bitocoin loading up for the next positive trend leg.

Resistance: 69535 / 70600 / 71980 / 72775 / 73835
Support: 66585 / 66000 / 64865 / 64240 / 61300

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 32+.

Ethereum: Taking a much-needed break before the next outbreak attempt

A week ago I wrote: “The rally that began on May 20 slowed as the 4000 level was approached and at the time of this writing a recoil is underway. In the short term, the price is overbought as most short-term momentum indicators have turned down from extreme highs.”

The past week started with a test of the 4000 level but is now trading around the short-term sentiment level marked by the EMA-8. In total, Ethereum rose by 1.5 percent in the past week, which means that the year's increase is now written to 67 percent. Last week developed as a shooting star but I interpret the May candle as a bullish engulfing.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies.

The volume balance is again positive since May 23.

MACD left on May 16 a positive cross but now probably approaching a negative cross which we have not seen in the positive part since March 15.

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Summary: After the sharp rise two weeks ago, I interpret the minor contraction as a pause formation. If it turns out that 3520 is punctured without quickly resuming, the risk increases significantly for a more challenging retake. However, the positive volume balance and the trend phase suggest that a future expansion will take place to the north. Should the price pull down and puncture the standard line at 3415, the risk increases that the May low at 2860 will be tested, which is not yet my main track. To begin with, it will be interesting to see which of the levels of the long dojin from last Thursday is crossed or punctured, it will probably be a good indication of which direction the expansion will take place.

Resistance: 3850 / 3975 / 4094-4104 / 4250
Support: 3700 / 3625 / 3520 / 3500 / 3355 / 3220

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 28+.

Solana: Approaching the tip of the triangle

A week ago I wrote: “If the price breaks up through the falling resistance line, the target is initially set towards the 210 level. If, on the other hand, the low from May 13 is punctured at 138, the risk of a decline towards primarily the MA-200 at 118 increases. As long as none of the boundary lines in the triangle-like formation are crossed, we should be prepared for sharp reversals when any of the levels are tested.”

The past week started with an attempted rally that was quickly beaten back. In total, Solana fell by 1.3 percent in the past week, which means that this year's rise is now written at 63 percent. The May candle developed into a bullish piercing line while the weekly candle took on the appearance of a negative reversal.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is ascending since early November. The trend phase indicator made its way on May 16 into the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies.

The volume balance is negative.

The MACD left on May 27 a negative cross.

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Summary: The price is still trapped in a trading range that has taken the shape of a triangle. If the price breaks through the falling resistance line, the target is initially set at the 210 level. On the other hand, if the low from May 13 is punctured at 138, the risk of a decline towards the MA-200 at 125 increases. As long as none of the boundary lines in the triangle-like formation are crossed, we should be prepared for sharp reversals when any of the levels are tested. Now I hope for a period of increasingly smaller swings and lower volume before the price breaks up, which in that case has good prospects of triggering an exciting and positive movement.

Resistance: 173.80 / 178.75 / 188.90
Support: 16.40 / 160.40 / 153.80

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 38-.

Cardano: Continuing testing of the level around the standard line

A week ago I wrote: “As long as price does not break out of this contraction, I interpret this to mean that the risk is high that the expansion will be to the south.”

This past week started with an attempt to break up through the 50-day moving average that also failed this time. In total, Cardano fell by 2.0 percent in the past week, which means that the year's decline is now written at 24 percent. In the monthly chart the May candle developed into a bearish engulfing but in the weekly chart into a doji.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is still slightly upward but the price is noted since April 23 below the long average. The trend phase indicator is noted since mid-April in the zone where we are told to be prepared for further decline.

The volume balance is negative since April 12.

The MACD has no slope and has been softening the zero zone for two weeks. If the level is taken out, there are good conditions for the next trend leg to be rising. I interpret a negative cross at or just below zero as a sell signal.

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Summary: Small dojis around a support are always interesting and if the standard line at 0.47 is crossed with a positive candle, it is a positive piece of the puzzle. Since April 22, Cardano has been caught in a trading range that has increasingly taken the shape of a triangle. The low volatility is positive if the breakout occurs upwards but can also trigger a tough selling pressure. Now I want to see that the price closes strongly above the standard line and that the level is not immediately punctured.

Resistance: 0.47 / 0.53 / 0.62 / 0.66-0.68
Support: 0.44 / 0.42-0.41 / 0.35 / 0.30 / 0.24

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the week around 24+.

ICP: Testing the strength of the MA-200

A week ago I wrote: “The formation is increasingly taking on the appearance of a descending triangle and therefore it is urgent that the MA-200 and support zone do not give way.”

This past week started with a couple of tests of the standard line but by the end of the week price had fallen down to the 200-day average, which is now being tested. In total, the ICP fell by 2.9 percent in the past week, bringing the year's decline to 9.4 percent. In the monthly chart, May developed into a doji-like candle and in the weekly chart into a bearih dark cloud cover.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is still upward and price is at best testing the average. The trend phase indicator is quoted since May 10 in the zone where we are told to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

The volume balance is negative.

MACD is working to soften the zero zone, but if the indicator takes off downwards from this level, there is a great risk of a decline towards the 8-level in the first instance, but in the longer term deeper than that. If, on the other hand, the zero zone is passed, the aim is set on one of the peaks around 14 or 16.

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Summary: Since April 21, ICP has been caught in a trading range between 11.00 and 16.40. Whichever of these levels is taken out or punctured will either initiate a challenging decline or be the start of a new positive trend leg. The MA-200 is now being challenged and it is important that the level is not punctured but is quickly retaken. Now I want to see the price close above the 50- and 100-day averages, which indicates that the next positive trend leg has begun after a positive breakout. Vollan is low and therefore a breakout or puncture has the potential to be powerful.

Resistance: 12.60/13.00/13.80/15.70-16.40
Support: 11.50-11.20 / 10.50 / 9.50

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the week around 25+.

Uniswap: Accumulating recent rises

Two weeks ago I wrote: “Now I want to see both the falling resistance line and the MA-200 retaken without being quickly punctured for me to turn positive in the short term.”

Price has now broken up through the falling resistance line and MA-200 that I wrote about two weeks ago. In total, Uniswap fell by 13 percent in the past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 36 percent. May finally closed as a bullish piercing line and the last week as a bullish separating line.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is slightly rising. The trend phase indicator is now noted in the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies.

The volume balance is neutral.  

The MACD left on April 23 a positive cross which is still in play but most likely it will be eliminated by a negative cross when the week starts.

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Summary: After the low volatility mode and the ascending triangle, the price expanded north, with a vengeance. After a rise of almost 80 percent in two weeks, Uniswap is now taking a much-needed break. As long as the standard line at 9.25 is not punctured, there are good conditions for the next trend leg to be positive and worth following. If, on the other hand, the standard line is punctured without being quickly retraced, there is a great risk of a decline to at least the 200-day average around 8.25. In the short term, Uniswap is oversold and the conditions are good for buyers to soon seek to get back in and establish a positive trend leg.

Resistance: 10.30 / 11.80 / 12.50 / 13.656
Support: 9.70 / 9.25 / 8.65 / 8.25 / 7.70

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 15-.

XRP: It's time to prove it

Two weeks ago I wrote: “Since mid-April, however, the price has oscillated in an increasingly tight range just below the 200-day average which is the result of uncertainty.”

This past week, the standard line was punctured and the price pulled down towards the rising support line. In total, XRP declined by 4.3 percent this past week, bringing the year's decline to 22 percent. May closed as an inside candle with a clear tail at the top, which is negative. It was the third month in a row that closed at the lower end.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is slightly downward. The trend phase indicator is noted since the end of April in the zone where we are told to be prepared for further dips.

The volume balance is neutral since May 25.

MACD left this week a negative cross but so far there is not so clear divergence towards the signal line.

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Summary: XRP has now fallen down to the ascending support line of the symmetrical triangle, which I would rather not see punctured. If it turns out that last week's low at 0.51 is punctured without being quickly retaken, the target is set at 0.43 which was marked in mid-April. To start with, I would like to see price retake the standard line at 0.52 without immediately puncturing the level. However, it is only if the MA-200 at 0.58 is retaken and held that the conditions for a rise are strengthened. However, given the momentum and volume balance, the undertone is slightly negative at the moment and it is becoming a matter of time if buyers are not to lose further confidence.

Resistance: 0.52/0.54-0.56/0.60/0.64
Support: 0.50 / 0.47 / 0.43 / 0.35

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 32+.

Polkadot: Continuing to scurry around in the trading range below MA-200

Two weeks ago I wrote: “Polkadot is trapped in a range between 7.6 and 5.8 and unless one of these levels is taken out or punctured, we should be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.”

Polkadot continued to oscillate within the confines of the ascending triangle over the past week. In total, Polkadot fell by 4.4 percent last week, which means that this year's decline is now written at 20 percent. The month of May developed a small inside bar completely trapped inside the April candle.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising. The trend phase indicator is now noted in the zone where we are told to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

Volume balance is negative since early April.

The MACD is about to test of the zero zone which if punctured is a negative puzzle piece.

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Summary: Polkadot is caught in a rising triangle and a range between 7.6 and 5.8 and as long as none of these levels are taken out or punctured, we should be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading. If 7.6 is passed without being quickly punctured, the target is set at 9.50. Should the rising support line instead give way, the target is initially set at 5.80. Even if the price is quoted below the MA-200, I see it as positive that buyers are absorbing selling pressure at increasingly higher levels.

Resistance: 7.10-7.20/7.45/7.80-8.10/9.00
Support: 6.80-6.50/6.30/6.10-5.80/4.80/

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 38+.