TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The following content is an automatic translation of Tobbe Rosén’s technical analysis, originally written in Swedish.

Bitcoin: Challenging the falling resistance line

A week ago I wrote: “I now interpret this as a new positive trend leg being initiated and the next critical resistance level being noted at the falling resistance line which we find just below 71000.”

The past week started with a powerful green impulse rally that took Bitcoin up to the falling resistance line which however became overpowered and the price then fell back. In total, Bitcoin rose by 3.2 percent in the past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 63 percent. In the weekly chart, however, the weekly candle developed into a negative reversal.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising since late October. The trend phase indicator has dipped its toes into the equilibrium oscillation zone but has rebounded into the area where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies.

The volume balance is negative since April 25.

MACD left a positive cross on May 13 and is now quoted in the positive part where the momentum for upside has however slowed down.

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Summary: Bitcoin started the past week by taking out the highs from April until a week ago in May. As I wrote a week ago, there was a good chance of a rise towards the falling resistance line around 71000 that was already reached on Monday. However, when the price reached the falling resistance line that connects the ATH peak and the April high, a recoil was initiated that is currently being tested by the ichimoku cloud. It is now good if the standard line at 64240 is not punctured as it risks triggering a decline towards the May low at 56500 or MA-200 at 53000. If, on the other hand, the buyers come back and manage to recapture the last week's high at 72000, the odds that new ATH notes will be noted are strengthened. Until proven otherwise, meaning that the May low is punctured, I interpret this as Bitocoin being in a new short-term positive trend.

Resistance: 69100 / 70200 / 727775 / 73835
Support: 66150 / 65850 / 65040 / 61300

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 85-.

Ethereum: Taking a much-needed break before the next outbreak attempt

A week ago I wrote: “A new higher low, which we will get confirmed if 3221 is taken out, strengthens the odds that the ceiling of the descending channel will be taken out and thus the next positive trend leg to be initiated.”

Already on Monday, Ethereum pulled up above the falling resistance line and the May high, triggering a rally towards the level around 4000 that was tested on Thursday. In total, Ethereum rose by 20 percent in the past week, which means that this year's rise is now written at 65 percent. The decline from the March peak of 31 percent two weeks ago has now been reduced to 9.5 percent. In the weekly chart, a bullish separating line developed.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is ascending. The trend phase indicator warned in early March that a reversal down from the extremely high level risked leading to a significant top, now we know that this was the case. After the price was down and dipped its feet in the equilibrium oscillation zone, it was noted again in the area where we are advised to act with positive trend-following strategies.  

The volume balance is again positive since last Thursday.

MACD left a positive cross on May 16th and took out the zero zone at the beginning of last week which is a positive piece of the puzzle.

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Summary: As I wrote a week ago, the conditions had strengthened for Ethereum to pass up through the falling resistance line and it did so, with a message, already on Monday. The rise slowed as the 4000 level was approached and as of this writing, a recoil is underway. In the short term, the price is overbought as most short-term momentum indicators have turned down from extreme highs. Volatility is now at its highest level since early March and we should be prepared for a new top to form as the width between the bollinger bands tightens. Should the price pull down and puncture the standard line at 3380, the risk increases that the May low at 2860 will be tested, which is not yet my main track. To start with, it will be interesting to see which of the levels of the long dojin from last Thursday is crossed or punctured, it will be a good sentiment indicator.

Resistance: 3950 / 4094-4104 / 4250
Support: 3520 / 3500 / 3355 / 3220

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 75-.

Solana: Turning back down at the upper limit of the triangle

Two weeks ago I wrote: “A first positive piece of the puzzle I will interpret a strong and clear daily close above the May high at 160. If, on the other hand, price instead turns down and punctures 139 where the standard line is found, without quickly regaining the level, the low of the trading range at 122 will probably be tested and that is the last stop before the 200-day average around 110.”

There was a crossing of the 160 level after the previous analysis and the price pulled up to the 190 level reached on Monday. However, in the last few days, the price has turned down and is noted at the time of writing cloud span a and the support level around 165. In total, Solana fell by 3.3 percent in the past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 64 percent and the decline since the peak on March 18 at 210 is now noted at 21 percent. In the weekly chart, the week developed a shooting star-like candle.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is ascending since early November. The trend phase indicator made its way on May 16 into the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies.

The volume balance is neutral.

The MACD left on May 4 a positive rather low cross that is still in play and I interpret that positively. In the negative wave bowl, however, the momentum for upside has slowed down and it is not too far to a possible negative cross.

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Summary: The price is caught in a trading range that is getting tighter. If the price breaks through the falling resistance line, the target is initially set at the 210 level. On the other hand, if the low from May 13 is punctured at 138, the risk of a decline towards the MA-200 at 118 increases. As long as none of the boundary lines in the triangle-like formation are crossed, we should be prepared for sharp reversals when any of the levels are tested. Now I hope for a period of smaller swings and lower volume before the price breaks up, which in that case has good prospects of triggering an exciting and positive movement.

Resistance: 168.20 / 178.75 / 188.90
Support: 162.45 / 153.80 / 139.30

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 39-.

Cardano: Continuing testing of the level around the standard line

Two weeks ago I wrote: “It will be interesting to see if the buyers manage to take out the MA-20 or if, like the last four attempts, it leads to another new lower low.”

Two days after the last analysis, Cardano managed to break up above the 20-day moving average and on Wednesday was even up and reversed above the MA-50. Now, the price has fallen back down and is about to test the area of the standard line and the 20-day average. In total, Cardano fell by 4.9 percent in the past week, which means that this year's decline is now written at 23 percent. In the weekly chart, a bearish harami formed.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is still slightly upward but the price is noted since April 23 below the long average. The trend phase indicator is noted since mid-April in the zone where we are told to be prepared for further decline.

The volume balance is negative since April 12.

MACD made a positive cross on April 22 and is now working to soften the zero, which if crossed is interpreted as a buy signal, but a negative cross around the level is interpreted as a short-term sell signal.

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Summary: Since April 22, Cardano has been caught in a trading range between 0.52 and 0.41 USD. As long as the price does not break out of this contraction, I interpret it as a high risk that the expansion will take place southwards. I do not want to see the last week's low at 0.45 give way as it risks increasing the selling pressure. Furthermore, if the consolidation floor at 0.41 is punctured, there is a high risk of a challenging decline towards 0.34. Now I want to see the price close above the 50-day average and not immediately puncture the level.

Resistance: 0.48 / 0.53 / 0.62 / 0.66-0.68
Support: 0.45 / 0.42-0.41 / 0.35 / 0.30 / 0.24

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the week around 34-.

Toncoin: Still in the pause formation after the spring rally

The past week has been in a relatively tight range and at the time of writing is about to test the 50-day average. The recent pullback has been tough and overlapping which can be positive when the price is headed down. In total, Toncoin fell by 4.8 percent in the past week, which means that this year's rise is now written at 175 percent. In the weekly chart, a negative reversal was formed.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is upward. The trend phase indicator was from early March to late April up in the zone where we are warned that a significant top may be about to form. Now the indicator has fallen down into the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies.

The volume balance is neutral.

MACD left on May 20 a negative cross.

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Summary: After repeatedly testing the 50-day moving average since the end of April, the price is once again noted at the level where both the standard line and the MA-50 meet up. The pullback of the last few weeks has been effected with tough overlapping candles, which is positive. In the best of worlds, price continues to respect the standard line, creating the conditions for a new positive trend leg to begin. Just below the standard line, a rising support line meets up which if punctured sets its sights on the April low at 4.60 which should be respected so as not to effect a double top-like appearance. Right now though I interpret it as the chance of upside is greater than the opposite but the default is as I said a bit of a watershed.

Resistance: 6.70 / 7.46-7.70 / 8.00
Support: 6.00 / 5.60 / 5.10-4.90 / 4.60

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the week around 64+.

Chainlink: Charging again with a turtle soup around MA-200

The past week both started and ended with breakout attempts above the 100-day average. On Thursday, a Turtle Soup was executed around the MA-200, which has good prospects of being the start of the next positive trend leg. In total, Chainlink rose by 6.7 percent in the past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 16 percent. In the weekly chart a bullish separating line was formed.

The long trend that I use the 200-day moving average to point out is upward and the price took off on Thursday from the level after a Turtle soup. The trend phase indicator is quoted since May 10 in the zone where we are told to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

The volume balance is positive.

The MACD left on May 16 a positive cross on April 21 and has now taken out the zero zone which I interpret as a buy signal.

Summary: After executing a triple bottom-like formation, Chainlink has made its way up above both the short and longer-term averages. Now I do not want to see price turn down and puncture the standard line at 14.90, but instead continue to make new higher lows while aiming for the early May top at 23. If it turns out that the standard line is punctured, the aim is set for the zone between 13.0-11.9.

Resistance: 17.70 / 18.65 / 19.50
Support: 16.50 / 15.50 / 12.85

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the week around 79-.

Avalanche: Continues inside a slightly rising channel

Two weeks ago I wrote: “A strong close above the trading range high indicates that the next positive trend leg is underway.”

Avalanche marked a new higher low two days after the last analysis and managed to cross up above the trading range high on Tuesday, but only by a relatively small candle. In the last few days, the price has rebounded down to the MA-200 which is currently being tested. In total, Avalanche rose by 1.1 percent in the past week, which means that the year's decline is now written at 2.3 percent. The decline since the peak at 65 in mid-March is now around 42 percent. In the weekly chart, it was the eighth consecutive week hovering around a flat 200-week average.

The long trend that I prefer to use the slope of the 200-day average to point out has been rising since the beginning of December, but the price has so far not managed to take out the level without quickly falling back and in several cases puncturing the average. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are advised to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

MACD left a positive cross on April 29 and now the indicator is testing the zero zone which if crossed is considered a buy signal but a downward turn and a negative cross I interpret as a sell signal.

The volume balance is negative since April 13.

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Summary: This past week started with price cutting up through the MA-200 but the uptrend ended when the 100-day moving average met up on Wednesday. Price is now in the process of testing the 200-day moving average, which is being respected so far. If price punctures the level again and the MA-20 at 36.00 also fails to hold, the aim is again set on the floor of the weakly rising channel. Should the 30 level give way, the accumulation zone from late November around 25-19 may need to be visited. I would now like to see the MA-200 respected and a MA-100 icebreak shortly.

Resistance: 38.00-42.25/42.25/46.60/50.00
Support: 37.00-36.50 / 35.15 / 31.30 / 30.00 / 29.40

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 10-.

Internet Computer: Testing the strength of the MA-200

The past week started with a test of the 50-day average, which was not taken out and instead the ICP turned down and is again testing the 200-day average. In total, the ICP fell by 6.7 percent in the past week, which means that the year's decline is now written to 8.2 percent. In the weekly chart, a negative reversal formed.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is still upward and price is at best testing the average. The trend phase indicator is noted since May 10 in the zone where we are told to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

The volume balance is negative.

The MACD left a positive cross on May 16 but has since failed to break up through the zero zone.

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Summary: Since April 21, ICP has been caught in a trading range between 11.00 and 16.40. Whichever of these levels is taken out or punctured will either initiate a challenging decline or be the start of a new positive trend leg. The formation is increasingly taking on the appearance of a descending triangle and therefore it is urgent that the MA-200 and the support zone do not give way. I would now like to see price close above the 50- and 100-day averages, which suggests that the next positive trend leg has begun after a positive breakout.

Resistance: 13.00/13.80/15.70-16.40
Support: 11.50-11.20/ 10.50/ 9.50

The cycle indicator is noted for the week around 25-.