TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The following content is an automatic translation of Tobbe Rosén’s technical analysis, originally written in Swedish.

Bitcoin: Turtle Soup in the weekly graph

A week ago I wrote: “As I have been writing for the past two weeks, there is a high risk of an initial decline immediately after the halving, which is probably the pattern we are seeing. Technically, I would now like to see the standard line at 66175 retaken without being quickly punctured.”

The past week started off choppy but the price on Wednesday punctured the support level around 59200 that has been intact since early March. However, the buyers came back and on Friday both the support level, MA-100 and EMA-8 were taken back. Now the standard line is being challenged. Bitcoin is listed at about the same level for this week as a week ago and the year's increase is thus written at +51 percent. In the weekly chart, a positive reversal was formed in the form of a turtle soup.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising since the end of October. The trend phase indicator has now fallen into the equilibrium oscillation zone and now I hope that there will be a short-term “dip of the toes” which has historically been a good trend starter. However, if this zone is punctured, the risk increases significantly that we have seen a long-term top form, which is not my main track.

Volume balance is negative since April 25.

MACD left a positive cross yesterday (Sunday) and now it will be interesting if it is followed by increasing positive divergence or develops into a negative trampoline.

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Summary: Bitcoin effected a turtle soup in both the daily and weekly charts this past week. Now the standard line is being challenged which if crossed and not quickly punctured is a positive piece of the puzzle. However, it is not until the latest short-term top at 67225 is crossed that we get an indication that the break formation is over and that a new positive trend leg is probably about to begin. If instead it turns out that last week's low at 56500 gives way without being quickly retraced, there is a high risk that the price needs to go down towards the 200-day average around 50000 to find enough buyers to trigger a new upward phase. Until proven otherwise, my main track is that Bitcoin is charging to once again break out to the north but that it may need one or two more rounds before the journey we have been waiting for takes place.

Resistance: 64545 / 66000 / 67225 / 71790
Support: 62200 / 60700-59200 / 57000 / 52900

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 85+.

Ethereum: Turtle Soup around April lows

A week ago I wrote: “Price is now attempting to break above the standard line and if this is successful without an immediate break of the level I will be positive in the short term.”

The past week started with a failed attempt to break out of the standard line and this led to a decline to the support area around 2800. In total, Ethereum fell by 3.4 percent in the past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 38 percent. In the weekly chart, a positive reversal developed but the price is still quoted below both the standard line and the 100-day average.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is ascending. The trend phase indicator warned in early March that a reversal down from the extremely high level risked leading to a significant top, now we know that this was the case. The indicator is now quoted in the zone where we are asked to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

The volume balance is negative since March 30.

MACD left a positive cross on April 23, but so far the divergence towards the signal line has not picked up, which indicates that there is still a high risk that the selling pressure has only taken a short break.

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Summary: Price punctured the standard line on April 12 and since then every close has been below the level. A first significant and positive piece of the puzzle would be a crossing of the standard line with a strong daily close. However, it requires that even the recent short-term top at 3356 is crossed without being quickly followed by a new lower low. If the April low at 2815 is punctured without being quickly retraced, the focus will be on the 200-day moving average, which is currently quoted around 2590. There is now a bit of negative undertone in the short to medium term. Now I want to see price not puncture the April low and soon retake recent short-term high.

Resistance: 3190-3210 / 3355 / 3620
Support: 3075-3065 / 3000 / 2865-2850 / 2815-2780

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 71+.

Binance BNB: Still caught within the March range

A week ago I wrote: “I will interpret a crossing of the March high at 645 as the first positive piece of the puzzle. However, if the standard line at 571 is punctured without being quickly retraced, there is a high risk that selling pressure will increase.”

The past week started choppy and on Wednesday the standard line was punctured but the level was already resumed on Friday. In total, the BNB fell by 2.4 percent last week, which means that this year's decline is now written at 23 percent. For the past 7 weeks, the price has oscillated within the limits of the weekly candles set in mid-March.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies but has fallen down from the extremely high level and also punctured the confirmation level. It is therefore important that the rate of decline of the indicator slows down so as not to risk it being a long-term “top warning”.

The volume balance is neutral.

MACD issued a buy signal on April 23, but so far there is no clear divergence from the signal line to indicate that a new positive trend leg is about to begin.

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Summary: Price is still trapped by the range that the March high and low mark at 645 and 496. Whichever of these levels is taken out or punctured is likely to be followed by a clear move in that direction. Right now, the risk is high for choppy moves with cross throws when any of the trading range's constraints are tested. If it turns out that the March low at 496 gives way without being quickly retaken, it sets the target towards 425 to begin with. A first positive piece of the puzzle I will interpret a crossing of the March high at 645. If, on the other hand, the standard line at 571 is punctured without being quickly retraced, there is a great risk that selling pressure will increase.

Resistance: 618 / 635 / 645 / 675 / 690-710
Support: 593 / 570 / 540 / 510-490

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 60+.

Solana: Turtle soup around February counterpole

A week ago I wrote: “In the short term, Solana is characterized by lower highs and lows. So far, the rising support line and 100-day average are respected.”

This past week started with the price puncturing the 100-day moving average and falling down to the support marked by the December and February counterparts around 120. Buyers came back on Thursday and, after a bullish engulfing, managed to take the price back up towards the standard line. In total, Solana rose by 3.0 percent in the past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 43 percent. In the weekly chart, a positive turtle soup was effected.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising since the beginning of November. The trend phase indicator is noted since April 29 in the zone where we are advised to act with equilibrium ranging strategies and be prepared for choppy trading. If the indicator quickly returns to the level of positive trend-following strategies, there is much to suggest that the next trend leg north has begun.

The volume balance is neutral.

MACD left a positive rather low cross on Saturday and I interpret that positively.

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Summary: After a mid-week turtle soup, the price has now made its way up to the standard line that was punctured on April 7 and since then we have not seen the level crossed with a single clear daily close. I will therefore interpret a strong and clear daily close above the standard line as a first positive piece of the puzzle, but it is only if the last short-term top from April 23 at 160 is taken out that the conditions for a new positive trend are in place. If, on the other hand, the price fails to recapture the standard line and also the latest top but instead falls down and punctures the April low at 118, the aim is set towards the 200-day average which now meets up at 106.

Resistance: 149.10/160.00/168.00/200.00-210.00
Support: 139.50 / 121.50-118.70 / 100.00

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 91+.

XRP: Fluctuating between MA-200 and April lows

A week ago I wrote: “Nearest to the upside, the standard line and MA-200 are meeting up. As long as none of the support or resistance levels of the consolidation are taken out or punctured, we should be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.”

Not unexpectedly, XRP bounced around the trading range marked by the April candles (0.63 and 0.43). After a drop to 0.48, buyers came back and ended the week testing the standard line. In total, XRP rose by 2.1 percent this past week, which means that the year's decline has now been reduced to 14 percent. In the weekly chart, a positive reversal developed.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is largely devoid of slope. The trend phase indicator has made its way down into the zone where we are told to be prepared for further dips.

The volume balance is negative since April 13.

The MACD effected a positive cross on April 22 which is still in play.

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Summary: XRP is once again trying to recapture the standard line but so far buyers lack enough confidence to take out and hold the level. On the upside, the standard line, MA-100/MA-50 and MA-200 are the closest. On the downside, it is the zone between 0.50-0.43 that should preferably not be punctured as it risks increasing selling pressure. As long as none of the support or resistance levels for the consolidation are taken out or punctured, we should be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

Resistance: 0.54-0.56 / 0.60 / 0.64
Support: 0.50 / 0.47 / 0.43 / 0.35

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 85-.

Cardano: Trying for the fourth time in 8 weeks to take out MA-20

A week ago I wrote: “Now, to start with, I want to see the MA-200 passed and not immediately punctured. Next, I want to see new higher highs and lows where the standard line is taken out and held.”

The past week started south but so far buyers have soaked up the selling pressure before the latest significant low that the April low at 0.41 marks. Cardano fell 2.5 percent this past week, bringing this year's decline to 23 percent. It was the third week in a row to close in the red, and the decline since the peak in early March now amounts to 44 percent.

The long term trend that I use the 200-day moving average to point out is still slightly upward even though the price is now quoted below the level. I wrote in early March that a decline for the trend phase indicator from the extremely high level risked building up a significant top if the indicator turned down below the confirmation level, which is exactly what happened. The trend phase indicator is now noted in the zone where we are told to be prepared for further decline but looks to be heading upwards.

The volume balance is turning down and turned negative on April 12.

MACD made a positive cross on April 22 and has been rising since then, but not very clearly, which is an indication that the expansion can take place both upwards and downwards.

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Summary: Cardano, since the 20-day moving average was punctured on March 16, has not managed to close above this on a single day since then. It will therefore be interesting to see if the buyers manage to take out the level on this attempt or if, like the last three attempts, it leads to a new lower bottom. We are now seeing signs that the downward momentum is slowing down. A flatter rate of decline is positive, but it requires the recent short-term top at 0.52 to be passed to speak of a bottom formation. If the April low at 0.41 gives way without being quickly retraced, there is a high risk of increasing selling pressure and a decline towards 0.34 to start with.

Resistance: 0.48-0.52 / 0.54 / 0.62 / 0.66-0.68
Support: 0.42-0.41 / 0.35 / 0.30 / 0.24

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the week around 77-.

Avalanche: Charging up for a double bottom

A week ago I wrote: “Price is now, just as it was a week ago, balancing on the 200-day average. Ideally, I don't want to see that level punctured, but to be quickly retaken. For now, I want to see the price close strongly above the previous day's high to see signs that buyers are starting to regain confidence.”

This past week started with the MA-200 being punctured but the level was quickly regained and on Friday we were treated to an icebreak that also closed well above the previous day's high. In total, the Avalanche rose by 7.9 percent in the past week, which means that this year's decline has now been reduced to 3.6 percent. In the weekly chart, a positive reversal was formed.

The long trend that I prefer to use the slope of the 200-day average to point out is rising since the beginning of December. The trend phase indicator warned at the beginning of March that a significant top could be on the way and now we know that it was. Last week the indicator moved up from the negative zone to the area where we are told to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

MACD left a positive cross on April 29 and now we also see some signs of an increasing positive divergence towards the signal line.

The volume balance is negative since April 13.

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Summary: The price managed at the end of the past week to recapture the MA-200 that was punctured on Tuesday. Now approaching the standard line not crossed since the April 1 puncture. If the last short-term top from April 24 at 39.9 is taken out, it indicates an upside potential in the short term, based on the double bottom formation effected then, to the 50 level. If the price instead turns down before 39.9 is taken out, there is a great risk of increasing selling pressure down towards the 30 level. A weak close below the 30 level sets the target towards the accumulation zone from the end of November around 25-19 and if that level also gives way, we will find the next plateau down towards the October lows, but I will return to that if it becomes relevant.

Resistance: 38.70 / 39.85 / 42.00 / 45.15
Support: 36.30 / 34.70 / 30.55 / 30.00 / 29.40 / 27.20

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 91+.

Polkadot: Still sloshing around in the trading range

A week ago I wrote: “Now, to begin with, I want to see the price take out the MA-200 without the level being immediately punctured and the standard line at 7.5 being retraced. If it turns out that the April low at 5.80 is punctured without being quickly retraced, the target is initially set at 4.80.”

The past week started south but at the 6 level buyers ventured back and on Thursday the 200-day moving average was crossed to be punctured again this weekend. In total, the Polkadot fell by 2.4 percent in the past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 23 percent. In the weekly chart, a positive reversal developed but in the daily chart, the price is still struggling to take out the standard line that was punctured on March 19.

The long trend that I am using the 200-day moving average to point to is upward and price is now testing the strength of the bulls. The trend phase indicator warned in early March that a significant top could be on the way and now we know that this is exactly what happened. The indicator is now showing signs of moving up into the equilibrium swing zone.

The volume balance is negative since the beginning of April.

The MACD executed a buy signal on April 23. Now I want to see a clear divergence towards the signal line.

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Summary: Polkadot is trapped in a range between 7.6 and 5.8 and unless one of these levels is taken out or punctured, we should be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading. Whichever of these levels is taken out or punctured will set the direction for the near term. If it turns out that the April low at 5.80 is punctured without being quickly retraced, the initial target will be 4.80, which is the low of the accumulation zone from November. If 7.6 is passed without being quickly punctured, the target is set at the 9 level.

Resistance: 7.20 / 7.45 / 7.60 / 7.90-8.10 / 10.00
Support: 7.00 / 6.50 / 6.30 / 6.10-5.80 / 4.80 /

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 81-.

Uniswap: Stuck in the rank marked by the April candle

A week ago I wrote: “Now I want to see both the falling resistance line and the standard line at 9 retraced without being quickly punctured for me to turn positive in the short term. If the MA-200 is punctured without quickly retracing, it is urgent that the April low at 5.9 is respected so as not to trigger an unnecessarily challenging selling pressure.”

The past week started with a puncture of the MA-200 and since then the average has not resumed. So far, the April low is holding at 5.9, which means that Uniswap is caught in a relatively tight range. The decline in the past week was 6.9 percent, which means that this year's rise has been reduced to 2.6 percent. In the weekly chart, a positive reversal developed and it was the third week in a row to close at the upper end.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is slightly rising. The trend phase indicator was up in early March at a level that when followed by punctuated confirmation levels risks effecting a significant top, just what we saw in late March and early April. The indicator has been down around -7 and reversals up from that extremely low level not infrequently lead to new positive looks taking over.

The volume balance is negative since April 16.  

MACD left a positive cross on April 23 and now I would like to see the divergence towards the signal line increase.

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Summary: The price fell in the week that went down below the 200-day average which is negative. So far, however, the support area marked by the monthly candlestick for April is respected. As long as the price is quoted between 8.40 and 5.90, there is a high risk of sharp reversals and choppy trading. Now I want to see both the falling resistance line and the standard line at 8.70 retaken without being quickly punctured for me to be positive in the short term. Volatility has not been as low as this since just before Christmas. When the price picks up from the lows, it is often a good move to hang on to.

Resistance: 7.70-8.35 / 8.80-9.20 / 9.60
Support: 7.30 / 6.60 / 5.90-5.40

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 74+.