TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The following content is an automatic translation of Tobbe Rosén’s technical analysis, originally written in Swedish.

Bitcoin: Tendency to a falling triangle but the support at 60000 is respected for now

A week ago I wrote: "Bitcoin is trading in a range with a slightly negative undertone, and there is also a high risk of an initial decline immediately after the halving. Technically, I would now like to see the standard line at 66175 retaken without being quickly punctured."

The past week started with a crossing of the standard line but already on Tuesday the level was punctured and since then the price has crept down around EMA-8. In total, Bitcoin fell by 1.8 percent this past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 51 percent. In the weekly chart, a negative reversal was formed, but it stayed within the April limits.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising since the end of October. The trend phase indicator is noted since October 21 in the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies. If the trend phase indicator continues down and punctures the 2 level, there is a high risk that we will be invited to a clear significant top.

The volume balance is neutral since April 19.

MACD made a negative cross on March 15 and it is still in play, we have seen two negative trampolines in the last three weeks. The indicator is now quoted just below the zero zone, which if it is retaken will be a positive piece of the puzzle.

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Summary: Bitcoin is trading in a range with a slightly negative undertone and as I have written the last two weeks, there is a high risk of an initial decline immediately after the halving, which is probably the pattern we see. Technically, I would now like to see the standard line at 66175 retaken without being quickly punctured. If instead it turns out that the March low at 59200 is punctured, it is relatively free down towards the accumulation zone from February between 52800-50350. There is still a good chance that the buyers will come back before the positive look fails and in the longer term there is much to suggest that the coming year will be really good. Until proven otherwise, my main takeaway is that Bitcoin is gearing up to once again break out to the north but that it may need one or two more retakes before the journey we've been waiting for takes hold.

Resistance: 66175/67700/71790/72000/73700/78000
Support: 62350 / 60700-59200 / 57000 / 52900

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 27-.

Ethereum: Testing of standard line

A week ago I wrote: "Now I want to see the price take out the standard line at 3290 and for the level not to be immediately punctured, for me to become positive again in the short term."

This past week started with a test of the standard line which was not passed. After a couple of days of further testing the MA-100, the price broke above the standard line over the weekend and now it will be interesting to see if the level holds or is punctured. In total, Ethereum rose by 4.9 percent this past week, which means that the year's increase is now written at 45 percent. In the weekly chart, a doji was executed.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising. The trend phase indicator warned in early March that a reversal down from the extremely high level risked leading to a significant top, now we know that this was the case. The indicator is now quoted in the zone where we are asked to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

The volume balance is negative since March 30.

The MACD left on April 23 a positive cross but so far the divergence towards the signal line to indicate that the decline is over has been missing. In recent days, however, we see some tendency for the MACD line to take off upwards which is a positive piece of the puzzle.

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Summary: Price is now trying to break above the standard line and if this succeeds without immediately puncturing the level I will be positive in the short term. For me to be positive in the medium term, I want to see the 50-day average re-taken. If the April low at 2850 is punctured without being quickly retaken, the focus is primarily on the 200-day moving average, which is currently quoted around 2590. There is now a bit of a negative undertone in the short to medium term. Now I want to see price take off and establish itself above the standard line.

Resistance: 3190-3210 / 3295 / 3340 / 3618 / 3730 / 4095
Support: 3065 / 3000 / 2865-2850 / 2720-2680 / 2160

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 36-.

Binance BNB: Still caught within the March range

A week ago I wrote: "Price is still trapped by the range that the March high and low mark at 645 and 496. Whichever of these levels is taken out or punctured is likely to be followed by a clear move in that direction."

The past week started with a crossing of the standard line and continued up 619 where the weekly high was recorded on Wednesday. In total, the BNB rose by 7.5 percent in the past week, which means that the year's rise is now sliced to 91 percent. In the weekly chart, the second consecutive week of closing at the upper end was accomplished, albeit within the March constraint.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is ascending and the G forces are sorted for upside. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are urged to act with positive trend following strategies but is noted since early March at an extremely high level and reversals downwards from these high levels, which punctuate confirmation levels not infrequently tend to lead to significant tops.

The volume balance is neutral.

MACD issued a buy signal on April 23, but so far there is no clear divergence from the signal line to indicate that a new positive trend leg is about to begin.

Summary: The price is still trapped by the range marked by the March high and low at 645 and 496. Any one of these levels being taken out or punctured is likely to be followed by a clear move in that direction. Right now, there is a high risk of choppy movements with sharp reversals when any of the trading range's constraints are tested. If it turns out that the March low at 496 gives way without being quickly retrieved, it initially sets the sights on 425. A first positive piece of the puzzle I will interpret a crossing of the standard line at 571, provided that the level does not quickly fall and then a crossing of 645 which sets the sights on the 700 level.

Resistance: 573 / 590-610 / 620 / 642 / 675 / 690-710
Support: 540 / 510-490 / 470 / 450 / 410-390

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 49+.

Solana: So far, MA-100 is respected

A week ago I wrote: "An establishment above the standard line, assuming it is not immediately punctured, means that I am again positive in the short term."

Solana started the past week with a rise, but as soon as the MA-20 was reached, things started to get heavy and the decline down towards the 100-day average was underway again. In total, Solana fell by 5.3 percent this past week, which means that the year's rise has now been reduced to 41 percent. In the weekly chart, a bearish engulfing candle was executed that is now testing the 100-day moving average where the rising support line also meets up.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is ascending since early November. The trend phase indicator is noted since October 12 in the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies. From mid-March, the trend phase indicator was at a level that warned that a significant top was imminent. After a 40% decline from the peak in March to the low in April, we can conclude that this was the case.

The volume balance has been positive since February 10 but is now approaching the three-month average.

MACD now looks to be executing a negative trampoline, which in this case reinforces the short-term negative appearance.

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Summary: In the short term, Solana is characterized by lower highs and lows. So far, the rising support line and the 100-day average are respected. If the standard line and channel ceiling are passed, we will find the next resistance around the 50-day moving average which is currently noted at 168. If, on the other hand, the price fails to retake the standard line and instead falls down and punctures the April low at 122, the target is set for the 200-day moving average which now meets up just above the 100 level. Short term there is negative undertone but long term I remain positive.

Resistance: 151.00 / 157.00 / 163.10 / 186.00
Support: 133.00 / 126.70 / 121.90 / 110.00

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 12-.

XRP: Fluctuating between MA-200 and April lows

A week ago I wrote: "If the uptrend turns down before the MA-200 is retaken, we will most likely see a retest of the support zone soon."

Last week started with a crossing of the standard line but the rise quickly slowed and on Wednesday the level was punctured. In total, XRP fell by a marginal 0.9 percent this past week, which means that the year's decline is now written at 14.8 percent. In the weekly chart, a doji developed, which is proof that there is uncertainty.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is largely devoid of slope. The trend phase indicator has made its way down into the zone where we are told to be prepared for further dips.

The volume balance is negative since April 13.

The MACD effected a positive cross on April 22 which is still in play. Now, however, I would like to see the divergence towards the signal line increase to create better conditions for an upturn.

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Summary: XRP tried this week to take out the standard line but it failed and the price is still quoted within April's limits. On the upside, the standard line and MA-200 are the closest. On the downside, it is the zone between 0.50-0.43 that should preferably not be punctured as it risks increasing the selling pressure. As long as none of the support or resistance levels of the consolidation are taken out or punctured, we should be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

Resistance: 0.54-0.56 / 0.60 / 0.64
Support: 0.50 / 0.47 / 0.43 / 0.35

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 21-.

Cardano: Continuing downwards within the canal limits

A week ago I wrote: "After a sharp decline of as much as 50% from the March 14 peak, we are now seeing signs that the downward momentum is slowing. Now I would like to see first of all that the MA-200 is passed and not immediately and then the channel ceiling where we also find the standard line for the week. As long as the price is unable to break through the short-term falling channel ceiling, there is a greater risk of downside than upside, but this scenario will reverse if the channel ceiling is crossed."

The past week started with a failed attempt to break up through both the 200-day and 20-day moving averages. In total, Cardano fell by 7.2 percent, which means that the year's decline is now written at 21 percent. In the weekly chart, a negative reversal formed but this week is also noted inside the rank of the powerful downtrend candle of two weeks ago.

The long trend that I use the 200-day moving average to point out is still upward even though the price is now noted below the level. I wrote in early March that a decline for the trend phase indicator from the extremely high level risked building up a significant top if the indicator turned down below the confirmation level, which is exactly what happened. The trend phase indicator is now noted in the zone where we are told to be prepared for further decline.

The volume balance turned down and became negative on April 12.

MACD made a positive cross on April 22 and has been rising since then, but not very clearly, which is an indication that the expansion can take place both upwards and downwards.

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Summary: Cardano failed this week to take out the 200-day average and at the beginning of the week turned down from the short 20-day average two days in a row. We are now seeing signs that the momentum of decline is slowing. However, it is easy to be fooled into thinking that the price will turn up then, but as long as the price stays within the confines of the falling short-term channel, there is a high risk of further decline. Now I want to see that the MA-200 is passed and not immediately punctured. Next, I want to see new higher highs and lows where the standard line is taken out and held.

Resistance: 0.48-0.52 / 0.54 / 0.62 / 0.66-0.68
Support: 0.45 / 0.42-0.41 / 0.35 / 0.30 / 0.24

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the week around 13-.

Avalanche: Continuing to test MA-200 within the channel limits

A week ago I wrote: "The price is now weighing on the 200-day moving average and ideally I don't want to see the level punctured, but to be quickly retaken."

This past week started with an attempt at a rally, but the price could not get above the 20-day moving average and has now fallen back down to the MA-200. In total, Avalanche fell by 9.2 percent last week, which means that this year's decline is written at 10 percent. In the weekly chart, a negative reversal was formed which is noted in the lower part of the April rank.

The long trend that I prefer to use the slope of the 200-day average to point out is rising since early December. The trend phase indicator warned in early March that a significant top could be coming and now we know that it did. Last week the indicator fell into the zone where we are advised to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

The MACD left a positive cross on April 23 but currently lacks a positive divergence towards the signal line and until then there is a high risk of choppy movements and a downward pull. The volume balance is negative since April 13.

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Summary: Price is now, just like a week ago, balancing on the 200-day average. Ideally, I don't want to see the level punctured, but to be quickly retaken. A weak close below the 30 level sets the target for the accumulation zone from the end of November around 25-19 and if that level also gives way, we will find the next plateau down towards the October lows, but I will return to that if it becomes relevant. For now, I would like to see the price close strongly above the previous day's high to see signs that buyers are starting to regain confidence and then it is important to restore the positive look in the short term, which means that the standard line at 40.40 is retaken without being quickly punctured.

Resistance: 36.00/38.65/40.00/43.90/48.60/50.80
Support: 33.10-32.90 / 30.00 / 29.40 / 27.20

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 13-.

Polkadot: So far lower highs and lows

A week ago I wrote: "I would like to see price break out of the MA-200 and 7.35 initially but for me to become short-term positive again, price needs to establish itself above the standard line which for the week started at 8.05."

The past week started with the price breaking up through the MA-200 but already when the 20-day average was tested, buying interest waned. In total, Polkadot fell by 4.8 percent last week, which means that the year's decline is now written at 16 percent. A negative reversal was formed in the weekly chart, but like the previous weekly candle, it stayed within the April range.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is upward but price is noted below the level.  The trend phase indicator warned in early March that a significant top could be on the way, in case the indicator turned down and punctured confirmation levels from the extremely high level. Now we know that this was the case and the indicator has continued down to now be noted in the zone where the risk of a decline is greater than a rise in the short term.

The volume balance is negative since the beginning of April.

MACD issued a buy signal on April 23, but so far there is no divergence from the signal line, which suggests that the rise in recent weeks is a pause in the decline.

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Summary: Polkadot has after the decline of over 50% since the peak in mid-March temporarily taken a break. Now I would first like to see the price take out the MA-200 without the level being immediately punctured and that the standard line at 7.5 is resumed. If it turns out that the April low at 5.80 is punctured without being quickly resumed, the target is initially set at 4.80, which is the minimum level for the accumulation zone from November. There is a good chance of at least an upward bounce from the current level, but if this is not the case, it is an indication of a weaker undertone than I had thought.

Resistance: 6.90-7.10/7.60/7.90-8.10/10.00
Support: 6.50 / 6.30 / 6.10-5.80 / 4.80 /

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 17-.

Uniswap: Standing and wobbling on the MA-200

A week ago I wrote: "I would like to see both the standard line and the falling resistance line around 9 crossed without being quickly punctured to become positive in the short term."

The past week started with an attempt to rise, but already on Tuesday the weekly high was marked at 8.36. The rest of the week was a choppy affair around the 200-day average. In total, Uniswap rose by 2.1 percent in the past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 11.3 percent. In the weekly chart, a doji formed just below the six-month average.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising since the middle. The trend phase indicator was at a level in early March that, when followed by punctuated confirmation levels, risks effecting a significant top, just what we have seen now. After last month's decline, the indicator has reached the area where we are told to be prepared for further decline.

The volume balance is negative since April 16.  

The MACD left on April 23 a positive cross and now I would like to see the divergence towards the signal line increasing.

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Summary: Although the price is now now quoted above the 200-day average, I lack a clearer momentum to be able to say that the decline is over. Now I want to see both the falling resistance line and the standard line at 9 retraced without being quickly punctured for me to turn positive in the short term. If the MA-200 is punctured without being quickly retraced, it is important that the April low at 5.9 is respected so as not to trigger an unnecessarily challenging selling pressure.

Resistance: 7.85-8.15 / 8.80-9.20
Support: 7.50 / 6.60 / 5.90-5.40

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 35-.